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MEGATHREAD & NEWS WRAP-UP --- Nov/18/2020: \\ War in Artsakh (Karabakh) \\ Artsakh's international recognition \\ roadmap for future \\ opposition & pro-govt demonstrations \\ suspects charged over hooliganism \\ Kievyan bridge incident \\ videos \\ humanitarian aid \\ COVID & healthcare \\ more...
Your 12-minute Wednesday report in 2971 words.
November 18 timeline
Nevada's Clarke County (Las Vegas) has officially recognized the Artsakh Republic. https://twitter.com/ANCA_Wstatus/1328753472565493761 9:37: 1700 Artsakh refugees have returned home so far. The population was around 145,000 before the war. Some 10-20% never left. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035190.html 10:09 PM Pashinyan presented the roadmap: It is time to talk about methods to overcome the current situation. I have already stated that I consider myself the number-one responsible for the situation. I am also responsible for overcoming the situation and establishing stability and security in the country. 1) Negotiations must resume in OSCE format, with the emphasis on Artsakh status and the return of Artsakh residents to their homeland. 2) Secure Artsakh residents' rights to return home. Fully restore daily life. Repair infrastructure. 3) Social aid for families of fallen soldiers. 4) Repairing infrastructure damaged in the Republic of Armenia. 5) Aid for wounded soldiers, obtaining prosthetics, educational training courses for changing professions if necessary. 6) Returning POWs and aid for their families. Clarification of the status of those who are missing, and aid for their families. 7) Rehabilitation system for those who participated in the war, and for the general public, too. 8) The beginning of reforms in the army. 9) Defeating COVID and overcoming its consequences. 10) Restoration of the environment for economic activity. 11) Activation of demographic programs. 12) Reforming electoral laws [opposition and the govt had agreed to lower the passing threshold to allow more opposition parties to enter Parliament, etc.] 13) Introduction of the Institute of Specialized Judges as the first step in establishing an anti-corruption courts. Launching the process to confiscate illegally embezzled property. 14) Conducting regular consultations with representatives of the Armenian political and civil community. 15) Consultations with diasporan institutes and individuals. The goal is to ensure the democratic stability of Armenia and to create guarantees that nothing threatens the formation of power in Armenia through the free will of the people. For this, I'll make changes to the government team. We will need 6 months to launch the aforementioned tasks. In June 2021, I will report to you the progress, and based on the public response, we will decide on what to do next. Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035193.html 11:11: US Senator Bob Menendez called on the US government to impose sanctions on Turkey and Azerbaijan for the military aggression, and to end weapon supplies to them. He called for a $100 million aid to Artsakh refugees. https://youtu.be/JCh49hna7hA https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035203.html 11:42 COVID stats: +4,109 tested. +1,589 infected (down). +1,726 healed. +28 deaths. 38,082 active (down). HealthMin Torosyan: the percentage of positive tests and the absolute numbers are declining, but the healthcare system is still under stress. We still have 375 patients waiting for beds, 25 of whom are in serious condition. We will likely hospitalize them sometime today. A few days ago the waiting list was 800. The trend can change again with the resumption of schools. Our main issue right now is oxygen supplies. Without it, the medication is ineffective. We'll soon receive more oxygen stations, followed by four large stations in December. We had purchased many oxygen stations during the first wave but today's large numbers, partly a result of the war, were outside of our predications. We're negotiating over vaccines. There are agreements. They will likely arrive in mid-Spring. We have no shortage of COVID test kits. New test labs are opening; two in the past week alone. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035206.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035232.html 11:43: earlier this year, a part of a residential apartment complex collapsed in Yerevan. The govt has issued free housing certificates to the affected residents. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035207.html 12:05: several soldiers returned from Artsakh and decided to organize a demonstration in support of PM Pashinyan. PM's office and QP party urged them to stay home and not to gather, citing the Martial Law that currently prohibits large gatherings and demonstrations. A dozen prominent opposition figures were charged with ignoring the Martial Law and organizing demonstrations earlier. If found guilty, they are facing anywhere between a $415 fine to 2 months of jail. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035208.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035240.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035245.html , https://www.arlis.am/documentView.aspx?docid=69646 , https://news.am/arm/news/614215.html 12:27: Aznavour Foundation and the Armenian Foundation of France have launched a committee to coordinate the aid process from France. Earlier they met President Macron about humanitarian aid and Artsakh's recognition. Links in the article: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035213.html 12:38: Parliament Speaker QP MP Ararat Mirzoyan was severely beaten by rioters on November 10th. Healthcare Minister says he will soon recover after one more surgery [which was done today]. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035215.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035236.html 12:45: German-Armenian pianist Margarit Hovhannisyan gave a solo performance to collect aid for Armenia Fund (www.HimnaDram.org). She donated $5,000 in proceeds. The German colleagues expressed support for Artsakh and Armenians. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035216.html 12:49: diasporan-Armenian singer Iveta Mukuchyan went to Artsakh's Dadivank church and performed "Sirt im sasani" (Սիրտ իմ սասանի) religious music. Video: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=845836856202879 Mukushyan released a German-language video: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=782524012332940 13:50: The US will donate $5 million to Red Cross and other orgs to help those who suffered from the war. https://factor.am/311291.html 14:02: the identification of soldiers who died in battles continues. 81 more names were published, bringing the total identified to 1586. Around 800 remain unidentified. Several hundred bodies were exchanged recently. The process continues. MoD Tonoyan: The list of missing soldiers is shrinking; many soldiers end up being discovered alive and well. We drafted a bill to aid the families of soldiers who're missing. Update: HealthMin Torosyan: we've examined 2425 bodies. 250 of them remain unidentified. https://youtu.be/zrXQBUJLdK0 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035225.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035249.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035288.html 14:05 Armenia Fund (Himnadram) report: hundreds of thousands have donated. The aid was provided to Artsakh and Armenia from the first day of the war. Diesel generators, emergency vehicles, medical products, basic consumer products, heating devices, portable gas stoves, mobile fuel stations, beds, etc. were purchased during the war. Simultaneously, 100 tons of aid was coordinated. Himnadram will help Armenia's budget to pay for social welfare, healthcare, infrastructure repair, etc. The documents are ready. Tens of thousands of Artsakh refugees were aided. International independent auditors will examine the finances.
During a Parliamentary session, the Deputy PM Mher Grigoryan confirmed that Himnadram has transferred some of the funds for humanitarian work. In response, former regime's HHK MP Armen Ashotyan, without evidence, claimed the money is being stolen. [Context: The former regime is mad because they were caught stealing Himnadram's donations in 2018. After the 2018 revolution, the Pashinyan administration busted HHK's Himnadram director with stealing the funds and using them on gambling. The director confessed and returned part of the stolen money. Himnadram then underwent a complete change in administration which raised the trust towards the fund. Now the former regime is sabotaging the diaspora's donation efforts for political gain.] More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035224.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614194.html 14:14: there are over 40 suspects charged with mass riots, attempts to forcefully seize power, and overthrowing the constitutional order, after the November 10 attack on the government buildings. 5 are arrested, 5 are told not to leave the country. 70 suspects, some of whom severely beat Parliament Speaker Mirzoyan and vandalized PM's residence, were also identified. They are on the wanted list. Rioters who physically abused Pashinyan's spokeswoman Mane Gevorgyan, and broke into Azatutyun media outlet's office, are also wanted by police. Some were arrested. https://youtu.be/1qA8iJ1JXmM?t=197 https://youtu.be/kSQ389vQA8U?t=3 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035226.html 14:18: Opposition LHK has its roadmap: no elections necessary, PM resigns, the ruling QP party appoints new PM, the new PM appoints ministers from various political parties. [similar to what Pashinyan did in 2018 when he appointed opposition Ministers for a brief period]. https://factor.am/311328.html 14:19: Azerbaijan earlier shot a Russian helicopter in Armenia. Two Russian pilots died and one was wounded. Armenia issued them military service medals. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035227.html 14:49: video showing more Russian peacekeepers moving to Artsakh: https://youtu.be/o7nwWmN59d8 15:18: Italian community of Viareggio has officially recognized the Artsakh Republic. https://factor.am/311370.html 15:55: Aurora humanitarian organization will help Artsakh residents. IDeA's first aid program will begin today. They're open to humanitarian program suggestions. Link in the article: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035237.html 16:27: Aghdam is one of the adjacent regions that's being given/returned to Azerbaijan. Seven villages with a combined 2,000 population will be resettled elsewhere. https://news.am/arm/news/614171.html 16:42: food prices in October YoY rose +0.6%. Consumer price index +1.3%. https://factor.am/311385.html 16:44: the head of Military Control Service Movses Hakobyan had resigned on November 10th. It was announced today. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035242.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614169.html 17:04: will Germany follow France and ban the Turkish extremist-terrorist "Grey Wolves" organization? German Parliament will hold a discussion tomorrow. Two bills were proposed. One of them appears to be bipartisan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035248.html 17:05 Healthcare Minister Torosyan: we need to build a new 250-bed center for wounded soldiers and their rehabilitation. We need to maximally use the existing resources; some of them require upgrades. This will cost approximately $5.2 million. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035247.html 17:09: Legatium Prosperity Index 2020 has ranked Armenia 55th in the world. That's a 23-step improvement over 2010. The strongest point was the business & investment atmosphere, with the environment being the weakest point. Georgia 53, Armenia 55, Azerbaijan 78, Iran 120. https://news.am/arm/news/614184.html 17:58: My Step charity foundation will double the number of wounded soldiers they help. The center will provide therapy, dental, and other services for 600 former soldiers. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035262.html 14:57: it's SNOWING in Gavar and Jermuk cities, and roads near Sevan and Aparan! Georgian roads are also snowy; the Lars transport hub with Russia is open only for large cargo trucks. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035233.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035253.html 17:38: Pashinyan was in Parliament to discuss various topics and answer questions. The opposition BHK and LHK parties boycotted and left. Ind. MP: do you support forming a government of national accord, which could be one of the ways to find a solution out of the current situation? Pashinyan: our task is to create an atmosphere of agreement in the country. No government can stay in power without the permission of the people. At atmosphere of agreement is not always achieved by forming [aforementioned type of govt consisted of various parties]. There is a need for agreement around two points: security and stability, and to guarantee democracy. Ind. MP: will there be changes in the government? Pashinyan: we are discussing it. Structural changes aren't being discussed right now. Full: https://youtu.be/64iJuNWbk_Q https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035259.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614076.html 17:58: another video from November 4th showing battles on the outskirts of Shushi. [still believe it was "given away" without a fight? 🤔] Hovhannes Avagyan, one of the deputy Artsakh army commanders, was killed during Shushi battles on November 7th. He received the Combat Cross medal posthumously. https://youtu.be/yrzBbKvXFO4 https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/287858/ 18:18: the 16 opposition parties resumed their demonstrations. They demand the government's and Pashinyan's resignation. The police urged them to respect the Martial Law and not to gather. They will also hold a demonstration on Saturday and present a document, presumably their own roadmap. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035264.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035280.html 18:21 Police: body of the 27-year-old Garnik Petrosyan was found under Kievyan Bridge on November 13th. A medical examination was carried out and an investigation was launched. The examination revealed that Petrosyan was among the rioters who broke into the govt building and caused destruction on November 10th. A felony case was launched against him and he was arrested shortly afterward. On November 13th he was charged with multiple felony counts. The same day, at 8 pm, his 3-day detention period had expired so he was released from the police station. The same day, prosecutors asked the court to arrest him for 2 months before his trial. Petrosyan was questioned until 9 pm. The tragic incident happened at 10:04 pm. Social media spread rumors that he was allegedly murdered and it wasn't a suicide by jumping from the bridge. Investigation revealed a witness who was walking nearby and saw how a man grabbed a flag pole and climbed at the center of the bridge at around 10 pm. By the time the witness picked up the phone to call 911 it was too late. Immediately afterward, two other people and the witness looked down the bridge and saw the body laying on the road below the bridge. The police arrived. The witnesses were questioned. The victim was there alone. CCTV footages were examined. It showed how the victim went there by himself, climbed on the edge, and jumped. It was revealed that the victim had attempted suicide in 2010 by overdosing on medications. He was registered at a special center up until 2019, where he was taking special medication. He stopped taking them in January 2019 at his own will. [Media outlets run by the former regime, and a Telegram channel called Mediaport, had earlier circulated rumors, without evidence, that the rioter was murdered by a ruling party member Hayk Sargsyan. The latter often finds himself the target of rumors]: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035265.html 18:22: Ara Ayvazyan is the new Foreign Minister. He is a graduate of YSU eastern studies Arabic faculty. Served in the Soviet army. Graduated from Beirut's Haykazyan college. Worked in MFA since 1995. Served as ambassador to several states in 1996-2018. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035266.html 18:56: despite being told to stay home, Pashinyan supporters gathered in front of the govt building, urging him not to resign. "I came from Martakert outposts. I have participated in war since 1992, and so did my family members. They [former regime] should have purchased weapons instead of private islands and mansions," said one demonstrator. "By hitting the Parliament Speaker Mirzoyan you're hitting me." PM's aide met the demonstrators and said his resignation isn't being discussed. Pashinyan went outside to meet them and asked them to go home, "I know that there are tens of thousands of you who are ready to gather in Public Square if necessary. Thank you. I bow to all the volunteers, fallen soldiers, and their families. Go home now. If necessary, I will invite you." The police began telling the gathered crowd to leave, citing the Martial Law. Pashinyan goes outside: https://youtu.be/ueXhEKJhcwA Soldiers: https://youtu.be/vgoGD89vNeA Soldiers: https://youtu.be/KhXFjOiERY4 Soldiers: https://youtu.be/G00E049LsdY https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035268.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035271.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035279.html 18:56: Russian humanitarian envoy will help Artsakh authorities to travel around and document the damage to civilian infrastructure. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035269.html 19:01: the army published names of soldiers who committed acts of bravery during the war. Lt. Colonel Ryurik Semyonov blew up 2 Kamaz trucks full of ammo, 2 anti-tank equipment, 3 tanks, 8 cars, 1 TR artillery unit. Lt. Colonel Arthur Qaramyan destroyed 3 and captured another 3 tanks. He helped to save 600 soldiers from encirclement. Private Suren Gabrielyan shot 6 armored vehicles and 2 tanks. Lieutenant Tigran Petrosyan shot 6 tanks. More: https://factor.am/311564.html 19:04: a soldier uploaded a video from trenches saying the army wasn't properly prepared and that the trenches have been in poor shape for 30 years. "Not deep enough to defend against explosions." He says this Martakert position was defended during the war despite the poor condtions. https://youtu.be/aWPzBZwk2j4 20:54: the opposition ended today's demonstration and promised to return at 2 pm on Saturday. They called for PM's resignation again. HHK Shawarmazanov said, "we won't engage in active politics if he resigns". Opposition Arthur Vanetsyan announced plans to participate in elections if they take place now. https://youtu.be/ZAuGcDRJ3uk https://news.am/arm/news/614243.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614239.html , https://factor.am/311610.html 21:05: the City Council of Paris has a resolution that urges the Paris mayor to ask the French MFA to officially recognize the independence of the Artsakh Republic. It takes into account a recent push by 15 French mayors to recognize Artsakh, Azeri-Turkish aggression and the use of hired jihadists, war crimes against Armenian civilians, destruction of 80% of infrastructure objects in Stepanakert (including schools and clinics). Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035284.html 21:11: Azerbaijan's opposition National Front criticized the govt for placing Russian peacekeepers on the borders with Artsakh. They held a demonstration and chanted "Putin, leave. Turkey, come." https://factor.am/311609.html 21:57 photos: these boys defended the borders: https://hetq.am/hy/article/124436 Here are the tankists: https://hetq.am/hy/article/124452 22:02: the government of Armenia and Artsakh formed a joint committee to coordinate humanitarian work. 1) Social issues 2) Education 3) Healthcare 4) Business environment 5) Infrastructure repair. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035291.html 22:50: Nations League Soccer Spoiler Alert! The Armenian team defeated Northern Macedonia 1-0, after winning the match against Georgia a few days ago. For the first time ever, the team, led by Spanish expert Joaquin Caparros, is the leader in its group. What does this victory mean? This tournament has four tiered Leagues: A, B, C, D. League A contains the "best" countries who compete for the champion's cup. The teams in lower leagues compete to climb up to higher leagues, with the ultimate goal of making into League A and winning the cup. Armenia has just advanced from League C to League B. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035292.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_UEFA_Nations_League 23:40: A1+ outlet wants to restore its TV broadcasting rights. They were suspended by the Kocharyan regime. They insisted it was politically motivated for their opposition views. The media outlet was targeted for covering the March 1st, 2008 events. Several outlets are currently competing for public airway licenses. The winners will be known in January. The TV regulator said those with the best programming will receive the license. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/201204 23:47: The French Senate will discuss the need to recognize the Artsakh Republic. Presidents of the five largest parties supported the idea to hold a discussion. http://www.civilnet.am/news/2020/11/18/Ֆրանսիայի-Սենատը-որոշում-է-կայացրել-քվերակության-ներկայացնել-«ԼՂՀ-ճանաչման-անհրաժեշտության-մասին»-բանաձևի-նախագիծը/408863
Thanks to u/jouscat for providing the inspiration for this post with her amazing post, Realities of a Woman's Life on the Road. That was a couple months ago, but I figured my experiences and what I've learned could help people, hopefully as much as Scat's. Also, thanks to her and Pokebert (u/2717192619192) for reviewing this post and providing some great suggestions. From the beginning my parents just didn't care. My dad was an abusive meth addict, often hitting me, but I never let him hit my sister. My mom was less on the abusive side and more on the passed-out-heroin-addict side. From the time I was 11 or so, I could disappear for days on end without them caring or sometimes even realizing, and the summer after 8th grade, I decided to use that to my advantage. I wrote a quick note telling them that I'd be back within a month or two, packed up a bag, read through all the vagabond advice posts I could find, and then hopped a boxcar out from my little town near Sacramento. Right as it pulled out, the door slammed shut, almost taking my finger with it. The train ended up taking me to Elko, Nevada, where I wandered around town for a couple hours before figuring out to hitchhike. Since then I've been all over the West, and also last summer I did a big circuit around the east, from New Orleans to Atlanta to Asheville to New York and then back to the land of cowboys and dust via a high-priority train that took me from Chicago to Denver. I've had some great experiences, and some horrible ones, which I'll be talking about here. My aim for this post is to prepare you youngsters for what's waiting for you once you run away, so I won't spend much time on the good part. To Run Away or Not to Run Away? I ran away because I hated living at home. I wasn't abused too much (not exactly a ringing endorsement), just completely fucking ignored. There were sometimes streaks of several days where I didn't talk to my parents despite being in the same little house as them. I had a couple friends at school, but I was an outcast for the most part. If I had the chance to relive that time in my life with everything I know now, I don't know if I'd run away again. The abuse started out not so bad, but it started to get worse, so I ran. If you're not getting badly hurt or abused, which is better than a lot of people can say, stay at home. Running away is only justified in very abusive situations, whether physical, mental, or emotional. It's a life-altering decision. But if you've got that itch to go, there's nothing I can say that could stop you. When I left there was no fucking way I could've been talked out of it. Don't take the decision lightly, though. Read through this post and all the other great resources on this sub and vagabond, hear all the shit that's happened to me over just three summers on the road, and then decide. Does it sound worse than what's happening to you? If so, think long and hard about it. Could it get worse? Better? What are your other options? If it sounds like a piece of cake compared to your home life, go for it. How to Run Away? I honestly can't help you with the emotional side of this one. I just got up and left, no shits given. As I said in the first paragraph, I just left a short note for my parents, and then a longer one for my sister. My friend, on the other hand, did. I'll call her Annie (not her actual name), I'll let her tell her story.
I've been in and out of the foster care system since I was 9. I ran away from every home they put me in after a couple months. Sometimes I didn't even unpack my bag. At first I'd just jump out the window at night and then bike to the next town over, mostly just to make a point, but then they got smart and made it so I couldn't open the window more than a couple inches. After that, I would sneak out and open the front door. I got caught a couple times like that. At first my attempts to run away weren't very successful. People pay attention to a 10 year old on the streets. But around 12 or 13, I was able to stay away for longer. I could take a greyhound to the nearest big city and get lost there, and after a month or a couple they'd find me or I'd come back, and it would start all over again. When I was almost 14, I was placed into a foster home that I genuinely liked. The "mom" and "dad" were caring and provided for us well, and the other kids told me it was good. But as time wore on, I saw that it wasn't at all perfect. One of the kids was involved in drug dealing, and was tangled up with a gang, and the "parents" sometimes let their anger break through, and would sometimes hit me or the other kids. Two days before the last day of school, the "mom" sent me out to find the kid that was into drug dealing, since he hadn't come home for dinner. I knew he spent a lot of his time in this one alley downtown, so I went there. I turned the corner and practically ran into him. He pulled out a switchblade and stabbed me. It didn't look like he realized who I was until a couple seconds later, then he tried to comfort me. Apparently I'd ran into a big drug deal, and he was on edge. On edge enough to stab me, at least. He got me in the boob, so I wasn't too badly hurt. I decided that I couldn't take it any more, so I went back home, grabbed a few things, and told them I was spending the night at a friend's house. Instead I spent the night out by the creek, and then the next day at school, I asked the author of this post (who I was already really good friends with) if I could come with him. He said sure, and here I am now. I haven't entered a foster home since I picked up a change of clothes after school that day. My wounded tit is an object of much curiosity from everybody who sees me topless, for anyone who was wondering.
What to Bring? As for gear and transportation, I'm more well-versed in that. The first time I left home, I went extremely bare-bones. To put all of my shit in, I brought a medium-sized hiking backpack that I got from Goodwill. It wasn't one of the fancy ones from Osprey or whatever, just a canvas sack. You need to think about the essentials first, not fancy trinkets. That means food, water, and shelter. I would bring a sleeping bag and a tarp (shelter), canned foods and other high-nutrition foods (food), and a milk jug full of water. Don't start out trainhopping, but if/when you eventually do (after getting a mentor), bring two or more full gallon jugs full of water. Also don't bring a tent. They're bulky, heavy, expensive, and they attract attention. I find a tarp to be much more useful. Beyond the essentials, there's things that you could live without, but are good to have.
Lighter and tinder. A campfire can cook food and keep you warm, both of which will be needed.
Some paracord. Useful for fastening shit to your backpack and much more. Don't take too much, if you have to cut it burn the ends to keep it from fraying.
A pocketknife. I'll put in a defense section after this, but a pocketknife is good for cooking and eating too. I used to have a Leatherman Juice, which I unfortunately lost a couple months ago. I now have a Wave+, which probably is too heavy.
Dr. Bronners soap. This soap is gold. It cleans everything from bodies to plates to hair, and you barely need to use a drop. Alternatively, dish soap is good, or even a bar of soap.
Fishing stuff. I like to fish, all you really need is a good long stick, a couple hooks/lures, a swivel and a bunch of fishing line. It takes some practice, but you can eat like a king with a whopper catfish cooked over an open fire. The best fishing rod is bamboo. I've got a homemade one that I bought from an old Cajun dude near Thibodaux. No, his name wasn't Amos Moses.
First aid. Your generic first aid kit will be useless; bring stuff that will help you.
Duct tape (not just first aid, this is good in general)
Restaurant napkins (for bandages and toilet paper)
Ibuprofen, Advil (or generic versions)
Any personal medical stuff (epipens, prescriptions, etc) although I would be very cautious of running away with a prescription. You'll be found out if you try to refill it.
Clothes. You don't need a lot, I'll go over warmth in the next bullet point. You're not going to smell good, but you don't need to. Just bring a t-shirt and jeans, maybe a pair of shorts too. I have a baseball cap that I love. If you're travelling in the desert, wear a thin shirt with long sleeves, some light pants, and a hat with a wide brim on all sides.
Warm clothes. This depends, but there are some basics. I travel with a heavy flannel, a hunting jacket, and a rain shell. When I'm travelling in the fall/wintespring, which is a rarity, I add on insulated Carhartts and long john bottoms. The only time when that layout has been stressed was when I hopped a train during a blizzard around Christmas a couple years ago. I think it was about 15 or 20 below 0 and I was cold as fuck. If you're east of the Rockies you probably won't need much or any warmth during the summer, but I do a lot of travelling in high mountains, deserts, etc. where it can get below freezing any time of the year.
An instrument. I'm a trombone player, which is not the best instrument for trainhopping. Still, I manage. I've got a junky trombone that I strap to my pack (paracord!) or put inside, and take it everywhere, and then I've got a somewhat nicer one that I leave with a friend in NOLA. It's a pain in the ass to carry around, but it pays. I try to go to New Orleans for at least a couple weeks a year. It's paradise for a jazz musician. I busk a lot, often solo, sometimes with a partner. I once raked in $450 in 5 days busking in New Orleans with me, a vocalist, and a saxophonist, both of whom I just met on the street.
Money. Busking is a means to an end. Start off with at least $100. My first time I had $72, which ran out somewhere around Ogden, UT. Mormons can be very friendly, but not to buskers, so I pretty much starved until I got to Cheyenne. Other ways to make money:
Farms. I grew up in the Central Valley of CA, where pretty much every vegetable or nut you eat comes from. Farms surround me. Here, you have to know Spanish to get a job, because 90% of the workers are Latino, and many are undocumented immigrants. Farm work here is fucking hard and for horrible wages, but it's usually easy to find if you know where to look.
That's really the only one I can think of. Check out the Advice Directory over on vagabond (currently deleted due to shit going on there).
Headlamp. Flashlights are meh, but a good headlamp is indestructible and you don't need hands.
Toiletries. I like being clean, I will admit. Along with Dr. Bronners, mentioned above, I just take a normal toiletry kit: toothbrush, toothpaste, floss, that's about all. The girls I've traveled with just bring normal period products.
Weight. I go as light as I can, because my trombone weighs 12.5 pounds. My pack is usually around 30 or 35 pounds with the trombone, but if you don't have a heavy-ass instrument like me, you can be more lenient with trimming weight. I'm 6'1" and 160 pounds, so I carry more than most others, I think the ideal pack weight for somebody a bit smaller than me is more on the 25 pound side than the 35 pound side. The second summer I was on the road, I carried two trombones from California to New Orleans, bringing my pack weight up to around 45 pounds. That royally sucked. I don't recommend all that ultralight stuff, it won't last long on the streets, and it's crazy expensive. I once went into REI to buy a pair of long johns, and I was absolutely appalled at what these people will pay for the tiniest thing. Like, 100 bucks for a fancy chair? Nah, man, a log is much sturdier and less expensive, and you don't have to carry it around.
Protection As I said earlier, I always have a pocketknife. I've got a leather holster strapped to my belt that I can easily pop open. Like jouscat said, it's no use if you can't get to it. At points in my "career", I've carried a hunting knife, bear spray, a switchblade (for a couple weeks in LA), and coins in a sock. DO NOT CALL ANYBODY'S BLUFF. If you're in a sketchy neighborhood or jungle, keep your knife in plain sight, but do not pull it on somebody unless you are prepared to use it. When I was 15, I pulled a knife on a crackhead in Missoula who was acting threatening and insane, as crackheads will. Bad idea. I woke up an hour later after he punched me in the side of the head and left me in the gravel. It could've been much worse. I woke up because a train was roaring by. He could've put my head on the rails. He could've dragged me back to his shack in the woods, and I would've been dead to the world, or for real dead. I could never use a knife on another person, thus the bear spray. I walked straight to downtown Missoula after I woke up and bought a can of bear spray. I usually keep it out when I'm in grizzly country, otherwise it looks out of place and suspicious. I have not had to use it yet. If you're hitchhiking with somebody who's starting to look threatening, pull out an apple and slice it very carefully and deliberately. This is the oldest trick in the book, but it works. Prostitution According to the US Justice Department, "1/3 of teenagers on the street will be approached by a pimp within 48 hours of leaving home". I cannot stress this enough, DO NOT DO PROSTITUTION. I once met a prostitute in LA, who had been pulled into it at age 16 after she ran away from home because her stepfather was raping her. She said that running away was the worst thing that ever happened to her. She attempted to commit suicide after 6 months of it, but it just fucked her with a lot of hospital bills. As far as I know she's still a prostitute. Read this article about child prostitution in NYC (I think there's a paywall if you're on mobile). There's also this one that provides many very in-depth articles/videos about how people get sucked in, how they are kept in, and how they can get out. If anybody has more experience with this type of thing, comment, or post on runaway. I think it's not talked about as much as it should be. My mother ran away from home at 16, a fact that I just learned recently. She was from Mexicali, crossed the border illegally and went up to Seattle, and then to Alaska. In Anchorage, she got addicted to heroin, and prostituted herself to survive. She eventually tried to go back to Mexico, but got waylaid 100 feet from the border by my dad, recently released from prison. Well, a year later, my dad moved 3-month old me and my mom up to Bakersfield, where he immediately got sent back to prison for beating my mom. She moved to Nevada with me, and of course wound up doing prostitution again. She never talked about it, but it must've been horrible. I wouldn't wish that on anybody, no matter how much pain they've caused me. Where to Sleep When it comes time to bed down, you may just want to crash wherever. But put some thought into your choice of location. If I'm hopping trains, I like to sleep at the edge of the yard. Usually there's some woods, or even just a patch of shrubs, that provide some visual protection. Don't sleep in jungles (hobo camps). Some people there are pretty insane. I'll spend the evening with them or whatever, but then sneak off to my own quiet corner of the yard so that I won't find myself robbed blind and with a knife in my back in the morning. If I'm hitchhiking, I'll ask them to drop me off next to a creek somewhere, preferably with some trees. I like sleeping next to creeks. Even if they're too polluted to drink from (always filter your water either way), they're still nice. Unless they attract mosquitos. That sucks. If you can sleep on government land, that's the best, but I don't really worry about who owns the land. Leave no trace, and everybody's happy. BLM/State/National Forest land is the best, though, because it's legal, and usually prettier than some farm. Unless you're sure of your camping and defense skills, don't go too far out into the wilderness. There are weird people out there, and nature isn't forgiving. Sleeping in town is no fun. Let's start from the outer ring and go in to the middle. If you sleep at the edge of town, you are likely to be stumbled upon by a bunch of drunk, possibly horny dudes who are trying not to get caught drinking by their wives. If you sleep in the suburbs, you are likely to get reported by some Karen for disturbing her perfect little world. If you sleep in an older part of town, you're likely to run into some illegal activity, and possibly get mugged. And if you sleep in the downtown/inner city, you'll be one of a thousand other homeless people, many who are mentally ill, and all who are competing for a limited number of benches, porches, doorsteps, and parks. A note on abandoned houses. If there's not a whole lot of graffiti, and it's not very easily accessed, I'd go for it. Make sure to position yourself in a place where you can get out easily, though. If it has tons of graffiti, litter, old needles, etc., get the fuck out. But if you do find a good spot, make sure to scope it out before going to bed. Are there multiple escape routes? Sketchy characters hanging around? Shit like that. If all is good, go right ahead. Don't make a fire in the western states during the summer unless there's a fire ring or you have a can or a barrel or something. Grass catches fire easier than you think, and starting a fire around here is a good way to start a hundred-thousand-plus acre fire. Transportation Start off hitchhiking. If you're running away, get as far away as you need to, and then you can try other ways to get around. Go to a freeway exit or a gas station and hold out your thumb. If you see somebody with a license plate from a state where you're trying to go, or near there, maybe walk up to them and ask for a ride. It might feel weird at first, but you'll get the hang of it. Also, be careful of who you ride with. Do they look threatening? Deranged? An addict? Don't go with them. The best people to go with are nice old ladies or young couples. Rarely ever do either of those people pick up hitchhikers. Usually I get rides with single dudes, often middle aged, even more often truckers. If you're a girl, the risk is even more elevated. I would not recommend hitchhiking if you don't think you could defend yourself from a big redneck with lots of experience getting in bar fights. There are too many creeps out there. Trust your instincts. The summer of 2019 was the first (and only so far) time I traveled with a partner full-time. Annie and I were looking for a ride in Twin Falls, Idaho in September, and not having much luck. It took a day and a half, but finally we got a ride with an old dude who said his name was Benny and he was bound for Portland. Well, we went with him, because we really had no choice, even though I had a weird feeling about him. All was good until the stretch of nothingness in between Ontario and Baker City. He pulled off a highway exit called Weatherby, saying he had to go to the bathroom, but instead he turned up a one-lane gravel road and pulled out a gun, saying he'd shoot if we tried to flee. He took us way back in the woods to a hidden cove about 20 miles off the freeway, where he tried to tie me up. Thankfully, he turned his back on Annie, and she kicked him in the crotch and then in the head. Let me tell you, you do not want to be kicked anywhere on your body with steel-toed boots. We took his truck back to the interstate and then begged a ride with a trucker at the rest stop. I don't know what became of Benny, but that was a fucking horrible experience. He was after Annie, not me, and I don't think he was going to play patty-cake with her. Trainhopping. Is dangerous. Is unreliable. But I love it. Get a mentor, and don't almost lose a finger like I did. Head on over to the advice directory on vagabond, there's some amazing stuff over there. Hiking is slow, but great when you're in a remote, beautiful area. In 2019, I took 6 days to hike from Silverton, Colorado, to Monte Vista. 124 miles. It was insanely tiring though, even for two very fit teenagers. Biking is faster than hiking, by quite a bit. I once biked from my hometown near Sacramento to Truckee in two days. After that I ditched the bike (it was free from the side of the interstate) and hopped a train out. Too much uphill travel, from 0 feet above sea level up to 7,500, and then back down to 6,000. All in about 120 miles. By far the most novel method of travel I've tried is by boat. I floated/motored down the Mississippi River in 2019 from Memphis to New Orleans, almost 650 miles. I had a tiny metal rowboat with an outboard motor that worked maybe half the time. Annie and I averaged about 65 miles a day, stopping in pretty much every little village along the way and taking turns sleeping at night. It was kind of like Huck Finn, but with a noisy and finnicky motor. If I were to do it again I'd do it more Huckleberry-like, taking my time with a raft, and maybe an electric motor. Still, it was a great experience, and I'd recommend it if you can get your hands on a boat. There are others, but I won't talk about them here. People are Weird and Creepy and Horrible Adults are pedophiles. Just assume that every adult will try to make an advance on you. Sorry to all y'all great adults, but it's better safe than sorry. Even as a 6'1" male, I've had random dudes and even a woman once try to seduce me. Annie and the other female partners I've traveled with have it even worse. When you're trainhopping and hitchhiking, it's unavoidable that you'll be travelling through the bad part of town. Almost every city has it, but especially cities in California and the Rust Belt. I don't have much experience with the East Coast, but I saw some pretty bad ghettos in Baltimore and Philly during my short stay there. NOLA has it really bad. The neighborhoods there have gotten a triple gut punch - they were already ghettos, they're mostly black, meaning society ignores their issues, and they were devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The ghettos anywhere have trafficking, murders, muggings, crazed homeless dudes, and more. Keep a low profile and stay away from shady characters (drug dealers/gang members). If you get a bad feeling from someone, just nope the fuck out. Walk away if you're in a railyard or a gas station, or ask to get out if you're hitchhiking. Usually they'll let you out, but if they don't, say something about how you forgot that you were supposed to meet your (big stocky club bouncer) friend at the last freeway exit, and if you don't, they'll get worried. Works 9/10 times. I'm going to let Annie write a section here on some of her experiences with creepy adults.
The summer of 2019 was the first time I had vagabonded. I needed to get away from my foster home, and I knew what SugarBowlSkier (Let's call him Jimmy) was doing, so I asked to come along with him. He said ok, and we left a couple days after the last day of school. We took a bus to Reno (had gotten almost free tickets from an old road buddy of Jimmy's who had to cancel). We were walking around a sketchy warehouse area east of the downtown, on our way to the Sparks yard, and Jimmy had ducked behind a building to take a leak. Some dude who had been in the shadows somewhere walked out and grabbed my boob. I punched him and yelled, and Jimmy came running back. I got out of that one fine, but I was fucking scared after that. Just 5 hours after leaving home. It might seem like I'm writing this easily, but it's fucking painful to talk about it. Jimmy mentioned the horrible experience with the motherfucker named Benny. That was by far the worst thing that's ever happened to me. I cried for days after that. The trucker who we got a ride with from the rest stop took us back to Nampa, where we hopped a train to Pocatello. We stayed in a motel there for almost a week, just collecting ourselves. I didn't hitchhike any more on that trip, but I have hitchhiked a couple times since that time. In a rail jungle in Atlanta, one of the guys in the jungle pulled out his dick in my face. He was tossed out of the camp. There have been other incidents, but not as bad as those. -"Annie"
That's all true. I have to mention one thing about the time in Atlanta. The guy was literally thrown out of the camp. Four people grabbed each of his arms/legs and tossed him. Don't fuck around like that creep did. The Law Running away is illegal. No question about it. Stay away from cops, for more reason than one. A cop tried to arrest me for being a "public nuisance", whatever that is, in Billings once. I was sleeping in a park during the daytime. I just ran. Thankfully the cop was fat AF, so it was easy to run around the corner and jump a fence into somebody's backyard. If you're black, cops are 90% of the time your worst enemy. Even more so if you're black and homeless. I'm a white guy (technically half Mexican, but I didn't learn that until recently), so I can't offer any advice on that, and I won't try to. Just stay safe, whatever that means. If you're a runaway and trainhopping, that's double illegal, so work even harder to keep a low profile. Don't do drugs, even marijuana (even if it's legal, cops don't like it), don't drink (do as I say not as I do), and if you see anything illegal going on get the fuck out. The fuzz will suspect you if you're near the scene of a crime, and even if they don't you'll be questioned, and then they'll most likely realize you're a runaway. A note on alcohol: I am not a good example for this. I have drank my fair share of alcohol, and so has Annie. I'm praying my sister doesn't think to look on my phone/computer, because she has no idea. I almost got alcohol poisoning after drinking multiple bottles of tequila (I don't really remember) a couple weeks ago. Alcohol will put you out of your misery... until the next morning. Then all your problems will come right back even worse then before, and you'll be fucked. Also, if you get caught, you're going down. So don't drink, kids. Phones I don't bring a phone while on the road. To me it's just another thing that ties me to our fucked up society, and a distraction. Also you can be tracked with a cell phone even if you turn location data off. I know that my parents wouldn't try to track me, but I am very worried that the government might try to put me, my sister, and Annie in a foster home if they realize our situation. Housing This might seem like a weird section to put in a post about being on the road, but the reality is that you won't be able to run away forever. The first time I ran away, I came back in late August and lived with my parents and sister for a winter. That's probably not an option for most runaways. The next summer I was on the road again, and then I came back to live with them again. Around Christmas (when else) I had to go down to Fresno for a week for a job, and when I came back my parents had kicked out my sister and skipped town. I flipped out and drove to where she said they had moved to (I'm not going to reveal the location because it's a very small town), and got in a bad fight with my dad. He was on some sort of drug, so he wasn't very coherent, but I gathered that he and my mom had split up. He went to the tiny town, and she went to Vegas, where it seems like every fuck-up in the world ends up. I went back home and tried to figure out what to do. My sister and I slept in the bed of my truck for about a month, and I ended up getting a distant family member to rent a tiny apartment for me and my sister, with me paying. I only did it that way because you can't rent a house as a minor. I lived there with my sister for the rest of the winter, but when summer came my sister told me that I had to go on the road. She saw how overworked and depressed I was, being cooped up in my little town, while balancing school and a job to support two people. Bless her soul for that. She went to live with some relatives for the summer while Annie and I went on the road. When school started but I was still gone, she went back home and lived with a friend until I came back. After that summer, I rented another house, this time slightly bigger, but still tiny by anybody's standards, and Annie moved in with us. It's a lot nicer now that there's two people with jobs in the household. I won't let my sister get a job for various reasons. She's too young to have all that responsibility. It's hard living like this, but we make do. When my sister and I first rented the house, we could've moved somewhere else and rented for several times less, but I wanted to stay in my hometown. For all it's faults, it's where I was raised, and it's where my few friends are. I could be living like a king in Bakersfield, but here I am, doing my math homework with pencils scavenged out of the gutter. I have second thoughts about staying almost every day, but it was the right choice for my family. Now, I'm facing eviction, and that whole plan has been turned on it's head. Suggestions on housing. Get something as cheap as possible, even if it's in a bad neighborhood. The first apartment I rented was in a pretty average neighborhood. When we had to upsize slightly to accommodate Annie, we moved to a dumpy little road in the country. The people here are pretty nice, though. It has the major disadvantage of being far from town, and without a reliable car, I have to get up at 3:00 every morning to bike to town and make my 5:00 AM shift at my job, which ends at 8. I'm sometimes late to online school, but what can you do? I end up working about 8-10 hours a day on weekdays, about 14-16 on Saturday, and then Sunday is my day off, only 6-8 hours. I also will do landscaping jobs whenever we're hurting for money, but that's less reliable and hard to fit into my schedule. Annie works (at a different place than me) from 8:00 PM to 4:00 AM every weekday. We're both insanely sleep-deprived and overworked 24/7/365, but still pretty much broke. Remember, this is "Realities", not "Dreams". If you want to support yourself, you'll have to work at least 60 hours a week, most likely more. I get paid minimum wage at both my jobs (gas station and farm), Annie slightly above. If you're alone, you should try and find an organization that will take you in. I've got a family member on the board of directors of a boy's home, and although they struggle a lot, it sounds better for the boys than being on the streets. I guess we're kind of like parents to my sister, although we aren't romantically involved. It sure is a taxing job to be a parent to a rebellious teenage girl. I could write a whole article on unconventional parenting situations, but I'll save it for another time. School Don't kid yourself. You will not be able to go to school while running away. It doesn't matter what the law says, you will be reported and sent home if you try to enroll in school. I don't know about online school, however. I'm not anything of a tech wizard, so I have no idea if they'd be able to track you if you keep logging on. I try to be on the road only when school is out, but it doesn't always work out that way. In 2019, I didn't get back home until early October. That kind of sucked, because I missed over a month of school. Here at home, I get by with school, even though I work 74+ hours a week and get maybe 5 or 6 hours of sleep a night. I never skip classes, and usually pull low B's and sometimes high C's. It's not going to get me into Harvard, but then again I won't be able to afford even community college. One of my two jobs (the non-farm one) is at a gas station, and I can tell you that working the graveyard shift at a gas station in a small town is the MOST. FUCKING. BORING. Job ever. It does give me a lot of time to do homework, browse Reddit, and listen to punk music. So if you ever walk into a gas station near Sacramento and hear The Offspring quickly being shut off, say hi to me. I don't know if anybody at school beyond my one or two closest friends knows my situation. It's not exactly a secret, but I don't go shouting around the halls about it either. I don't care much for the whole popularity thing, but if I did I'm sure living in a half-abandoned house with no parents and working at a gas station would not win me any favors. My sister is more worried about that shit, I can't fathom why. But she does it without being a jerk like many popular kids, so I can't judge. Crossing Borders This may seem kind of off-topic, but for one reason or another, it's something that I've found comes into play quite a bit when you're on the road. State borders are easy. 90% of the time you'll just drive right over them. On busy roads in some states (like my state of California) they have agricultural inspection stations, where they prohibit you from bringing most vegetables, nuts, and fruit into the state to avoid these. There's no real danger to get found out with these, as long as you do what they said and don't panic. It's literally just telling them, "No sir, I do not have any produce with me." National borders are trickier. I've got no experience legally crossing national borders, but I know that you need your passport in 99% of places (I think San Diego and Tijuana might have some arrangement). I have, however, snuck over both the Canadian and Mexican border briefly. I'm not going to tell you how to do it, because it's highly illegal, but I will say this: don't do it. This is another thing where you should do as I say, not as I do, because if you are caught on the other side of the border without a passport, you will be sent to jail and then tried. My mom was an undocumented immigrant. She ran away from Mexicali at 16, and ended up in Anchorage, a prostitute and a heroin addict. I only learned this a couple days ago, and I haven't seen her in years, but if I ever do see her again, I would like to ask her about her experience. I know that it was successful, though. Another reason not to cross the Mexican border: Mexico is fucking dangerous. In Agua Prieta, I heard way more gunshots in the two nights I was there than the two nights I spent right outside of Skid Row in LA. In Piedras Negras, I swam across the Rio Grande just to say I'd done it, and although I was only over there for about 6 hours, I saw the most poverty that I've ever seen. My last border experience was perhaps the worst. A couple days after Piedras Negras, I wanted to try it out again, so I swam from Laredo to Nuevo Laredo. It was hard avoiding the border patrol, who were hidden all over, but I managed to get across OK. I wandered around Nuevo for a while, and then realized it was getting dark, and I didn't want to be there during the night. I walked the mile or so back to the river, but it was swarming with US and Mexican government people. My best guess is that there was a crime or something, or maybe somebody drowned. Either way, I couldn't get back that way, so I figured I'd have to walk either north or south out of town. I didn't want to be walking around at night, though, so I chose to sleep in a nice-looking park next to a hospital. At around 2:00 AM, I was woken up by screaming, and then a couple minutes later sirens. I was sleeping without a sleeping bag or anything since the low was above 80 degrees that night, so I was able to get the fuck out in about 30 seconds. I ran/walked the 2 or so miles to a golf course next to the river, which I snuck across and then swam across the river. It was fucking crazy. I never found out what happened at the park, or what caused the patrollers to be all over the area. It would've been mid-July 2018, I think. Anybody know anything? All three of those times were in 2018, and I haven't crossed into Mexico since, and I don't plan to again. Mental Health Being on the streets is lonely. It helps if you're with a partner, but if you're alone, you can go weeks without any meaningful contact with others. I like that, but I know it can be hard for people. I saw somebody make a very good point in a thread here recently. When you're hitchhiking, you're kind of acting as that person's anonymous therapist. They will never see you again, and neither of you have any idea who the other is, so they're free to pour their heart out to you. It can be hard hearing about that. I've ridden with people who were falsely charged with murder, have attempted suicide, and even a man with terminal cancer. For me though, being on the streets helps my mental health more than it hurts it. I've been very depressed at points in my life, and several times the only thing standing in between me and suicide was the thought that my sister would have nobody to support her. Being sedentary sucks, and I try not to let it get to me, but it does. I've been at home for almost 500 days due to COVID, with only two or three opportunities to get out. Late winter and spring were the hardest, but surprisingly the pandemic made it better. I didn't have to be an outcast at school every day, and I had more time to work, meaning we were in a better financial situation. I can't express how thankful I am that I wasn't laid off of either of my jobs, as so many people were. We'd be in a bad fucking situation if that happened. Another thing that can bring you down mentally is seeing the underbelly of our society. You'll be walking through the metaphorical and literal back alley of wherever you are. You'll see all the things that make the world bad: junkies, gangs, extreme poverty, trafficking, you name it and it will be encountered. The worst I've experienced this was in Stockton, one of the most dangerous and poor cities in the US. Every alley holds a junkie shooting up on their poison of choice, gang violence has decimated the south part of the city, and parts of South Stockton look worse than Detroit. Even if this doesn't affect you physically, it really takes a toll on you mentally. Overview Running away is dangerous, hard, and illegal. You should only do it if it provides a better situation than the one you are in. Carry protection, probably a knife, but don't call people's bluff. Don't get involved in prostitution, no matter how desperate you are. Trust your instincts about people. If they give you a bad feeling, get away from them. If you are a girl, you most likely will be sexually harassed, and possibly raped. Stay away from cops, don't do anything illegal, and especially don't cross borders. You won't be able to go to school on the road. Eventually you'll have to settle down somewhere, so have a plan for that. Will you be 18 by then? If so, that makes it a lot easier. I've been dumb. I've made bad decisions. Many of them. That's probably led to me having a worse-than-average experience. But I hope that y'all can learn from my mistakes and do it better. I know that there are going to be people who go through my whole account just to shut me down, so I'm just going to say that you will find discrepancies. I don't mention my situation unless it's called for. People feel sorry for me, and I hate it. If a person is going to take the time to search my post history, they deserve to know my story. I'm going to finish with a quote from my second grade teacher and pretty much everyone since: "Life isn't fair."
Why NY and not just NYC would be a unique, interesting, and fun FO5 setting
To start, this should be a single player game. If Bethesda/Obsidian/MS can make it so I can play with 1 or 2 friends, I want that but understand it's not that simple. So why it should be picked: First, NY has an amazing history when it comes to Pre-Revolution, Revolution, the Civil War, and beyond. Major events like the battle at Saratoga (which is considered the turning point of the Revolution), the 1980 Miracle on Ice, and Woodstock (along with a whole lot more) all took place in upstate NY. So the rich history of the area is ripe for pro American stylizing and propaganda that gives FO it's unique take on American Atom-punk. That along with more modern history of things like the Native Americans (The Oneidas) actually taking back their land and forming their own sovereign nation (basically they have their own gov. Pay no state taxes, and self govern with police, fire, and allow gambling which NY does not). So their modern government would not only be some great lore, but I honestly believe could be a basis for the main quest line. Things like their unique tribal leadership, philosophy, and gambling (hello 10 luck) could bring a very grey area to fallout that was kind of missed in FO3 + 4. Plus their mythology would make for a great weird scene that fallout has at least 1 of every game. Also, for those who don't know, upstate NY is very country with major cities pocketed about. (Utica, Albany, Syracuse, etc). So if you liked NV style of wandering the wastes, or 3s style of city wandering, we've got both. Also, we've got two mountains areas, one in the Adirondacks and the Catskills are the other. That said, one of the most important parts of fallout are the locations. Where can we go? For that I have a list: Major locations: Lake Placid Winter Olympics training facility - the winter olympics world be held in 2078 and if they still exist by then and to play into the game, LP could be the location of those games. Again, the miracle on ice where American Amateurs bested the Communist Russian Pros, was held there. The "Better dead than Red" sentiment would be full force. Not to mention one of a few great locations for a possible vault (80, in this case to house winter olympians). Plus, the weapons could be cool too. Hockey sticks, hockey skate blades on gloves, a goalie mask for armor, you name it. Cooperstown Baseball HOF - Now when you think Americana, Baseball is one of your first thoughts, don't lie. Cooperstown is baseball central and very pretty. Another great place for pro-american styles and fun gear like baseball base mines, softball helmets (because fuck you "A League of Their Own" style pro-baseball league in FO sounds awesome), and of course bats and baseball grenades. Also a baseball Vault (Vault 4, 5, 7, or 9). Not my idea, but in this vault, there's 32 teams of mens and 32 teams of womens baseball (or coed teams, idk), all of whom are pro players. Vault tec test is simple, winner gets food and drinks, loser gets steroid infused food and drink (but they don't know it has steroids obviously). The idea is, test how good at baseball people can be if given monster amounts of steroids for generations. I'll make a separate post about this in detail if desired. Canastota Boxing HOF - Another unique area for America. Canastota is pretty boring and empty, but for those of you old enough to remember Rocky when it came out, it basically revived Boxing as a major sport and also had a moment where America bested the Red Menace (Rocky IV). Maybe a spot for a vault or to learn unique unarmed moves. Pugilism Illustrated anyone? Albany - NYs capital and an easy big city area along the Hudson. A great location for corporate greed, governmental corruption, and side quests. Can't say it'll be the focal point of the game since its very near the eastern border of it, but a good location for exploring and lore. Buffalo/Niagara Falls - Ya ever gone over the falls in a barrel? Do ya want to? I think using Niagara Falls (which has an American and Canadian side, Canadas is the U-shaped famous one) as Fallouts first "Non-American" location would be fun. First, the falls are beautiful and are a major source of hydroelectric power. Second, in FO, America annexed canada, so it's technically still America! Third, right across the "border" are casinos! More gambling! Third and a half, it's another big city and buffalo is where the buffalo wing was invented (God bless buffalo wings). Besides the cool lore opportunity about the annexation and the city location, the falls could be a major location for the story if the main conflict was about powering the area, similar to NV. Syracuse - NYs (literal) center city. The Salt City as it was formally known is a big city with some great old and new style. Again, not much about the city to say, but a great opportunity for corporate BS. The main attraction would be the Syracuse Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome). Due to its location and style, it's perfect as a central trading hub for the major cities and people. Think of Great Green Jewel style, people living, bars, shops, etc. BUT the really interesting part is what's right next to the Dome. SUNY ESF (Environmental Science and Forestry). This college is special because (A. I went there) it has very unique programs and with some future tech thrown in, could be a great location for a Fallout 3 Harold or NV vault 22-esq quest. The college already does experiments with major chemicals, evolution (FEV anyone?) and breeding plants for unique purposes. Again, I have a really cool idea for this area, but that can be a different post. Fun fact, ESF is actually working to bring back the North America Chestnut that went (nearly) extinct! Also, some asshole releases the fruit flies the genetics lab work with every year and it sucks. NYC (Empire, 9/11 memorial, Statue of Liberty) - Yeah yeah, you can't have NY without the City, but frankly there's so much here to explore and deal with, I'd leave it to the pros to really do it justice. Turning Stone Casino - Gambling, a hotel/restaurants like in NV, and a good spot for the main quest line. Fort Stanwix - A real revolutionary war fort. HQ or major area for raiders. Safe, well protected and with plenty of history. Fort Drum and Griffis Air Force Base: Two major bases that could be packed with guns, nukes, and power armor. Heavily guarded by turrets, robots, and security gates. Main Quest: Without too much detail, I figure your character will be hired to figure out the future of NY. You'll be brought to the Turning Stone which is currently the HQ of the Oneida tribe. Your job would be to either work with the other tribes in the former Iroquois Confederation (Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida, Mohawk, and Tuscarora [added later]). (Quick note: in my AU, some time after the bombs fell, the IC came to power because of their knowledge of living off the land and attempted to rebuild society. After some time rebuilding and establishing a post-war society, the tribes do the thing all humans do and bicker. Around 2200 the IC broke apart but the tribes retained power in their areas. They fight, trade, yadda yadda but no one is in control of everything. Throughout your quest, it turns out that what is holding everyone back is a lack of power for things like lights and running water. Your job will be to determine where to get that power (Nuclear power plant in Oswego or the falls in Niagara?) And where to give it (one tribe? A few? Or all?). But that's not all, the tribes can't decide who should be in charge. One tribe wants to remain independent, don't help the outsiders and rebuild society in their image within NY, another wants to help others but would need to sacrifice their own people's safety and seclusion. Maybe another wants to be imperialist and expand their borders throughout America through way of force and fear while another agrees with taking land but wants it done through offers of protection for taxes. And each tribe has its own opinion on bringing the IC back together, staying separate, or taking over the tribes for themselves. It's up to you character to decide who to help. Do you work hard to try and bring all tribes together under one banner or choose a side and execute their will as a paid mercenary/ambassador? Other choices would be chaos by siding with raiders, or maybe a BOS path to take out all the tribes, idk, haven't thought it all out. Again, not a writer. Mechanics: So personally, I like the idea that if you choose to go with a single faction, there would a battle/war mechanic where you and an army (or alone if you really wanna try) take over and lay claim to areas similar to Nuka World where you fly the gangs flag. Nothing complicated, normal fallout fights, don't die and kill the leadehis troops to win. Karma is back. You will garner good or bad rep with each tribe depending on what you do. I'd like an armor system like in NV but I can live without it. There is an ending. Once you beat the game you can continue doing side quests for armoexperience/ammo but only for the tribes left in power. Occasional rebellions will rise up as random events that need to be put down. Settlements are limited. Like skyrim, but a plot and build. No need to build one everywhere and you don't even need to do it if you don't want to. Radio host? Gimme a Mr. New Vegas type guy. I don't want an eccentric 3-dog, I want a smoothed voiced person wishing me lady like luck. Also, smarter AI. Otherwise, typical FO mechanics. Weapons degrade, can upgrade weapons and armor, etc. Main problems with NY: No real borders to the south. Invisible walls would like be necessary which is stupid. Same to the East, but the Hudson could theoretically be used as a border if you put crazy strong mirelurks or something to kill the player if they tried to cross (or more invisible walls) Don't want to disrespect the tribes. This is an issue with using each tribe as a possible faction. You're bound to piss off or disrespect one. So it'll be a task to make sure it's as limited as possible. What to do with the city? It's a huge area that can be used for so much, but as a part of NY it's actually pretty seperated. It's a commercial hub now, but there's nothing there that would really be a reason to go down there. So do you make it one or do we just make it a glowing sea type area that's completely decimated from the bombs? That's my personal choice honestly, but it's a tough one to please as many as possible. Conclusion: NY is rad. I'll be taking questions as long as they do not involve Canadian trivia. Thank you.
Hillary Clinton is the 69-year-old Democratic candidate and the former Secretary of State. Her running mate is US Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine.
Donald Trump is the 70-year-old Republican candidate and the Chairman of The Trump Organization. His running mate is Indiana Governor Mike Pence.
Issues and Background
There has never a major party candidate in history quite like Donald Trump. Trump is a famous business mogul, primarily involved with real estate, who has existed as a living archetype of a super rich person for decades. His fame was heightened with the NBC reality TV show The Apprentice, which he hosted. In 2000, he sought the nomination of Ross Perot's Reform Party. Following this, he was a registered Democrat until 2009. Starting as early as the competitive primary he took part in, he has become known for controversial statements and proposals, including:
In December 2015, Trump called "for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on." More recently, he has pivoted to supporting a ban on immigration from countries which "export terror" combined with "extreme vetting" of immigrants.
In July 2015, regarding Senator John McCain, Trump said, "He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren’t captured, OK?"
Also in July 2015, he gave out Senator Lindsay Graham's cell phone number to viewers of a rally.
During the primary, he said of Carly Fiorina, one of his competitors, "Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that?"
At a February 2016 primary debate, he said, "I would bring back waterboarding. And I’d bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding."
On the unemployment rate, Trump said, "the number’s probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent."
Asked on a morning show who his foreign policy consultants are, he said, "I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things."
One of the most recent things that put Donald Trump in the news prior to his run for President was starting in 2011 when he questioned without evidence whether President Obama was born in the United States. He claimed to have sent investigators to Hawaii and said, "I have people that actually have been studying it and they cannot believe what they're finding." Trump also falsely claimed that Obama was secretly a Muslim. Following Obama's release of his long-form birth certificate, Trump claimed that an "extremely credible" source had contacted him to say the certificate was a fraud. He continued these claims until September of this year, when he acknowledged President Obama was born in the United States.
One of the issues that Trump has focused his campaign on is immigration, especially illegal immigration. In his 2015 announcement speech, he said:
When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.
Trump's plan for immigration is to build a wall along the southern border of the United States and "have Mexico pay for it," which his campaign says will be achieved by Trump threatening to cut off the flow of remittances from the US to Mexico. Hillary Clinton supports comprehensive immigration reform to "treat every person with dignity, fix the family visa backlog, uphold the rule of law, protect our borders and national security, and bring millions of hardworking people into the formal economy."
This year, conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died unexpectedly in his sleep. Senate Republicans quickly asserted that the seat should not be filled until after the presidential election. Nonetheless, President Obama nominated moderate Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. Senate Majority Mitch McConnell has, with the support of the vast majority of his caucus, blocked any hearings on the nomination. This means Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will likely nominate a Supreme Court Justice as one of their first actions in office, though Senators Cruz and McCain have raised the possibility of blocking any nominee from Clinton as well.
In 2015, the Obama Administration announced the culmination of many years of negotiations to produce a trade liberalization agreement among twelve Pacific nations (notably excluding China) known as the TPP or Trans-Pacific Partnership. Hillary Clinton has supported free trade agreements in the past but not long after the final TPP text was released, she said the deal did not meet her standards. Trump has taken a more aggressive stance on the issue of trade and often brought it up on the campaign trail. Trump intends to not only withdraw from the TPP but renegotiate NAFTA and withdraw from NAFTA if a renegotiation is not agreed to, use the threat of tariffs to remedy trade disputes with China, and label China a currency manipulator.
Just a month ago, the Washington Post published a 2005 video of a conversation between Donald Trump and television host Billy Bush on a bus on the way to film an episode of Access Hollywood. Describing an attempt to seduce Bush's co-host, Trump said:
I moved on her, and I failed. I'll admit it. I did try and fuck her. She was married. And I moved on her very heavily. In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said, "I'll show you where they have some nice furniture." I took her out furniture—I moved on her like a bitch. But I couldn't get there. And she was married. Then all of a sudden I see her, she's now got the big phony tits and everything. She's totally changed her look.
Describing an actress who they were to meet, Trump said:
I better use some Tic Tacs just in case I start kissing her. You know I'm automatically attracted to beautiful—I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait. And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab 'em by the pussy. You can do anything.
Trump has apologized and said he is not proud of his words, but has also downplayed the seriousness of the remarks, calling them "locker room banter" and regularly pivoting to criticism of the behavior of Hillary Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton.
Following the video, Trump's words were condemned by many, including many Republicans. Several Republican Senators including Kelly Ayotte, Mark Kirk, Mike Lee, Mike Crapo, John McCain, Cory Gardner, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse, and John Thune have either withdrawn their support for Donald Trump or called for Pence to replace Trump at the top of the GOP ticket. Some of these individuals have softened their stance more recently.
At least 24 women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct spanning 30 years. Many of the accusations involve groping women without their permission. Trump denies the accusations.
Since 2011, Syria has been in a complex civil war. Bashar al-Assad's government continues to fight against a number of opposition groups, some aligned with each other and some not. Also involved in the conflict is the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, typically referred to as ISIS, an extreme Salafist proto-state controlling territory primarily in Syria and Iraq. In 2014, the Obama Administration led an international coalition in beginning direct targeted intervention against ISIS, primarily via airstrikes and supplying some of the entities fighting ISIS.
Hillary Clinton's plan for Syria and fighting ISIS is to establish a no-fly zone and on-the-ground safe zones to protect noncombatants, intensify the current air campaign, and offer more meaningful support for Kurdish allies.
Donald Trump has said that Hillary Clinton's proposed no-fly zone would start a third world war, has criticized Hillary Clinton and the Obama Administration for allegedly telegraphing their military plans ahead of time publicly, and has been less critical of Assad than Clinton, emphasizing, "Syria is fighting ISIS."
While leaving a 9/11 event, Clinton stumbled and slumped as she attempted to enter a vehicle to leave early, raising questions about Clinton's health. Her doctor has since said that she was treated for pneumonia and that she became dehydrated at the event. She has fully recovered.
Donald Trump has offered significant positive sentiment over the years regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin, at one point in 2013 tweeting, "will he become my new best friend?" During the campaign, he has said he would "get along very well" with Putin. When an interviewer brought up Putin allegedly ordering the killings of journalists, Trump said, "at least he's a leader, unlike what we have in this country ... I think our country does plenty of killing also." Russia has been under condemnation and new sanctions from major players in the international community the last couple years following its 2014 annexation of Crimea. Trump does not have a clear stance on Crimea.
This year, the Democratic National Committee as well as Clinton Campaign Chair John Podesta were hacked and had tens of thousands of emails stolen. These emails were given to Wikileaks which proceeded to leak the emails of the DNC (and Podesta) to the public in batches.
The US Intelligence Community has concluded that the Russian government is behind the hacks, saying:
The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities.
Even with the concerning origins, the content of the emails has been featured in a significant amount of media coverage, even making its way into multiple debate questions. Some of the DNC emails implied a breach of strict neutrality during the primary by the DNC, leading to the resignation of the DNC Chair and a formal apology to Bernie Sanders. Some of the Podesta emails suggested that Donna Brazile had attempted to give town hall questions in advance to the Clinton campaign on at least a couple of occasions.
Possibly the most discussed content from the email leaks is the collection of transcripts of a few of Clinton's paid speeches primarily to financial firms. One of the most discussed excerpts has been:
That, I think, has probably been true for all of our history, and if you saw the Spielberg movie, Lincoln, and how he was maneuvering and working to get the 13th Amendment passed, and he called one of my favorite predecessors, Secretary Seward, who had been the governor and senator from New York, ran against Lincoln for president, and he told Seward, I need your help to get this done. And Seward called some of his lobbyist friends who knew how to make a deal, and they just kept going at it. I mean, politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory, and it always has been that way, but we usually end up where we need to be. But if everybody's watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position. And finally, I think -- I believe in evidence-based decision making.
Another much-discussed excerpt has been:
My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.
As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton used a private email server rather than using official State Department email infrastructure. In May of this year, the State Department Inspector General released a report stating that Clinton "did not comply with the Department's policies." In 2014, Clinton's Chief of Staff instructed Clinton's computer services provider to, following the archival and preservation of all work-related emails, allow all other 31,830 emails to be automatically deleted. Following a subpoena from the Select Committee on Benghazi, a technician at Clinton's computer services provider realized he had never actually deleted the emails, and then proceeded to delete them. Donald Trump has repeatedly in speeches and debates referenced the "30,000 emails," asking about what is in them and why they were deleted.
In 2015, based on a referral from the State Department inspector generals, the FBI began investigating how classified information was handled in the context of Clinton's email server. Clinton has said with regard to her personal server, "I never sent or received any classified material." In July of this year, James Comey announced the conclusion of the FBI investigation, saying, "although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case." He also said there is evidence that Clinton and her team were "extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information."
In a July news conference, Trump said, "Russia, if you’re listening — I hope you are able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. Let’s see if that happens."
In the context of an FBI probe of former Congressman Anthony Wiener's alleged sexting with an underage girl, new emails to and from Hillary Clinton during her time as Secretary of State were discovered. This was announced in a letter from James Comey on October 28th to Congress committee chairs, and was widely interpreted that day as a "reopening" of the Clinton emails investigation. However, just two days ago, on November 6th, Comey sent another letter stating that the FBI had reviewed all the relevant communications and that "we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July."
At a September fundraising event, Clinton made the following comments:
You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it. And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people – now have 11 million. ... Now, some of those folks – they are irredeemable, but thankfully, they are not America. But the other basket ... that other basket of people are people who feel the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures; and they're just desperate for change. It doesn't really even matter where it comes from. They don't buy everything he says, but – he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won't wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they're in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.
Clinton has since expressed regret for saying specifically that "half" of Trump's supporters are deplorable. The Trump campaign and Trump himself have sharply criticized Clinton for the comments, and many of Trump's supporters have reappropriated the "deplorable" label for themselves.
In 2005, Donald Trump launched "Trump University," which ceased operations in 2011 amid scandal and complaints. Even since then, it has been the focus of multiple lawsuits. In June of this year, Trump made the unsubstantiated claim that Judge Gonzalo Curiel has "an absolute conflict" in litigation related to Trump University because he is "of Mexican heritage."
Debate Excerpts First Presidential Debate (full transcript) (1) Clinton on tax policy:
We also, though, need to have a tax system that rewards work and not just financial transactions. And the kind of plan that Donald has put forth would be trickle-down economics all over again. In fact, it would be the most extreme version, the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country than we've ever had. I call it trumped-up trickle-down, because that's exactly what it would be. That is not how we grow the economy.
(2) Trump on trade:
You go to New England, you go to Ohio, Pennsylvania, you go anywhere you want, Secretary Clinton, and you will see devastation where manufacture is down 30, 40, sometimes 50 percent. NAFTA is the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere, but certainly ever signed in this country.
(3) Clinton on Russian cyberattacks:
I know Donald's very praiseworthy of Vladimir Putin, but Putin is playing a really tough, long game here. And one of the things he's done is to let loose cyber attackers to hack into government files, to hack into personal files, hack into the Democratic National Committee. And we recently have learned that, you know, that this is one of their preferred methods of trying to wreak havoc and collect information. We need to make it very clear—whether it's Russia, China, Iran or anybody else—the United States has much greater capacity. And we are not going to sit idly by and permit state actors to go after our information, our private-sector information or our public-sector information.
(4) Trump on Russian cyberattacks:
As far as the cyber, I agree to parts of what Secretary Clinton said. We should be better than anybody else, and perhaps we're not. I don't think anybody knows it was Russia that broke into the DNC. She's saying Russia, Russia, Russia, but I don't—maybe it was. I mean, it could be Russia, but it could also be China. It could also be lots of other people. It also could be somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds, OK? You don't know who broke in to DNC. But what did we learn with DNC? We learned that Bernie Sanders was taken advantage of by your people, by Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Look what happened to her. But Bernie Sanders was taken advantage of. That's what we learned.
Vice-Presidential Debate (full transcript) (no excerpts provided) Second Presidential Debate (Town Hall) (full transcript) (1) Trump on the Access Hollywood tape:
Yes, I'm very embarrassed by it. I hate it. But it's locker room talk, and it's one of those things. I will knock the hell out of ISIS. We're going to defeat ISIS. ISIS happened a number of years ago in a vacuum that was left because of bad judgment. And I will tell you, I will take care of ISIS.
(2) Clinton responding to Trump claim that she attacked Bill Clinton's accusers:
Well, first, let me start by saying that so much of what he's just said is not right, but he gets to run his campaign any way he chooses. He gets to decide what he wants to talk about. Instead of answering people's questions, talking about our agenda, laying out the plans that we have that we think can make a better life and a better country, that's his choice. When I hear something like that, I am reminded of what my friend, Michelle Obama, advised us all: When they go low, you go high.
(3) Trump on Clinton's emails:
You know, it's amazing. I'm watching Hillary go over facts. And she's going after fact after fact, and she's lying again, because she said she—you know, what she did with the e-mail was fine. You think it was fine to delete 33,000 e-mails? I don't think so. She said the 33,000 e-mails had to do with her daughter's wedding, number one, and a yoga class. Well, maybe we'll give three or three or four or five or something. 33,000 e-mails deleted, and now she's saying there wasn't anything wrong.
(4) Clinton on health care:
So I want very much to save what works and is good about the Affordable Care Act. But we've got to get costs down. We've got to provide additional help to small businesses so that they can afford to provide health insurance. But if we repeal it, as Donald has proposed, and start over again, all of those benefits I just mentioned are lost to everybody, not just people who get their health insurance on the exchange. And then we would have to start all over again.
(5) Trump on immigration:
ICE just endorsed me. They've never endorsed a presidential candidate. The Border Patrol agents, 16,500, just recently endorsed me, and they endorsed me because I understand the border. She doesn't. She wants amnesty for everybody. Come right in. Come right over. It's a horrible thing she's doing. She's got bad judgment, and honestly, so bad that she should never be president of the United States. That I can tell you.
(6) Clinton/Trump exchange on the rule of law:
CLINTON: ... I told people that it would be impossible to be fact-checking Donald all the time. I'd never get to talk about anything I want to do and how we're going to really make lives better for people. Stro, once again, go to HillaryClinton.com. We have literally Trump—you can fact check him in real time. Last time at the first debate, we had millions of people fact checking, so I expect we'll have millions more fact checking, because, you know, it is—it's just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country. TRUMP: Because you'd be in jail.
(7) Trump on one positive thing he respects about Clinton:
I will say this about Hillary. She doesn't quit. She doesn't give up. I respect that. I tell it like it is. She's a fighter. I disagree with much of what she's fighting for. I do disagree with her judgment in many cases. But she does fight hard, and she doesn't quit, and she doesn't give up. And I consider that to be a very good trait.
Third Presidential Debate (full transcript) (1) Clinton on whether the Wikileaks excerpts suggest she wants open borders:
Well, if you went on to read the rest of the sentence, I was talking about energy. You know, we trade more energy with our neighbors than we trade with the rest of the world combined. And I do want us to have an electric grid, an energy system that crosses borders. I think that would be a great benefit to us.
(2) Trump on Putin:
I never met Putin. This is not my best friend. But if the United States got along with Russia, wouldn't be so bad. Let me tell you, Putin has outsmarted her and Obama at every single step of the way. Whether it's Syria, you name it. Missiles. Take a look at the "start up" that they signed. The Russians have said, according to many, many reports, I can't believe they allowed us to do this. They create warheads, and we can't. The Russians can't believe it. She has been outsmarted by Putin.
(3) Clinton on her experience versus Trump's:
But I think it's really an important issue. He raised the 30 years of experience, so let me just talk briefly about that. You know, back in the 1970s, I worked for the Children's Defense Fund. And I was taking on discrimination against African-American kids in schools. He was getting sued by the Justice Department for racial discrimination in his apartment buildings. In the 1980s, I was working to reform the schools in Arkansas. He was borrowing $14 million from his father to start his businesses. In the 1990s, I went to Beijing and I said women's rights are human rights. He insulted a former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado, called her an eating machine.
(4) Trump on the Clinton Foundation:
It's a criminal enterprise. Saudi Arabia giving $25 million, Qatar, all of these countries. You talk about women and women's rights? So these are people that push gays off business—off buildings. These are people that kill women and treat women horribly. And yet you take their money. So I'd like to ask you right now, why don't you give back the money that you've taken from certain countries that treat certain groups of people so horribly? Why don't you give back the money? I think it would be a great gesture.
(5) Clinton on the Clinton Foundation:
Well, very quickly, we at the Clinton Foundation spend 90 percent—90 percent of all the money that is donated on behalf of programs of people around the world and in our own country. I'm very proud of that. We have the highest rating from the watchdogs that follow foundations. And I'd be happy to compare what we do with the Trump Foundation, which took money from other people and bought a six- foot portrait of Donald. I mean, who does that?
/thetagang is a sub for traders who are interested in selling options.
An option? What's that?
Options are derivative financial instruments, which means they derive their value from an underlying, such a stock or commodity. Options are a contract in which the buyer has the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying at an agreed upon price on or by a certain date. All options have an expiration date after which they stop trading. Because they eventually expire they are also wasting assets, which means they lose extrinsic value as time passes. This is where theta gang comes in.
Uh huh... I don't really understand anything you just said, but I'm curious, why would anyone want to trade options?
There are two main reason why someone would want to trade options: hedging and speculation. Consider an investor who buys a stock but is worried about a price decline. They can purchase options (put contracts) to protect themselves if the stock's price were to fall. And if they think a stock is overvalued and want to short it, they can purchase options (call contracts) to protect them should the price rise. In both cases the investor is hedging their trade because they are trying to profit from the stock and not the options. The other reason is speculation. Options allow someone to make a directional bet on a stock without buying or selling the actual stock (the underlying).
Why would someone bother with trading options when they can just trade the underlying?
Leverage. Equity option contracts are standardized and each contract (also called a "lot") is for 100 shares of the underlying. It's a way to have exposure to the underlying without needing the capital to buy or sell 100 shares for each contract. In other words a smaller amount of money controls a higher valued asset. Options allow a buyer to make amazing profits. If a trade goes incredibly well, they could see profits anywhere from 100% to 10,000% (a few are even lucky enough to get 100,000%). And despite being leveraged the most amount of money they can lose is what they paid to buy the options. This is known as the premium and is paid to the seller. The option buyer's losses are limited to the premium and their profits are potentially unlimited, whereas for the seller the losses are potentially unlimited and the profits are limited to the premium.
WHAT?!? Why on Earth would anyone sell options with a payout like that? Especially when you could become rich so easily?
If only it were that simple. The reality is most options expire worthless. If you buy options not only do you have to get the directional bet right, but you have to get the timing right as well. If you buy a stock and it goes nowhere for a while and then suddenly takes off in price, you make money from this trade. Not necessarily for options. They eventually expire and if the stock soars after the option expires, tough luck. You get nothing and lose all your money. All of the incredible gains you see with options happen because the underlying made a huge move in a relatively short period. In other words, you have to take an immense amount of risk to make a boatload of money. It's far more likely that the options expire worthless and you lose everything. And if getting the direction and timing right wasn't hard enough, it gets even worse. Options are priced to lose. Recall that options are a wasting asset. An option slowly loses extrinsic value as time passes. This is referred to as theta decay. If the underlying doesn't move in price fast enough (in the right direction, of course) to offset the loss in theta, you lose money. This leads to an interesting outcome: an options buyer can be right and still lose money, and an options seller can be wrong and still make money.
WHAT?!?! How can someone be wrong in a trade and still make money?
The value an option has can be split into two parts: intrinsic and extrinsic. Remember how options have an agreed upon price to trade the underlying at? That's called the strike price. As an example, if a call option has a strike of $10, and the stock is trading at $10.50, the option has $0.50 of intrinsic value. The extrinsic value is also known as the time value of an option. It's the risk premium the seller receives for taking on the risk of selling options. Using the same example as earlier, if the option is trading for $1.10, the extrinsic value is $0.60. The intrinsic and extrinsic value combined are the option's premium, and the seller receives this premium in full. So if at the date of the option's expiration the stock is trading at $10.70, the option is worth $0.70. The seller's $0.40 profit is the buyer's loss. And if the underlying is at $10 or less on expiration? It expires worthless and the buyer loses 100%.
This sounds too good to be true. If most options expire worthless why doesn't everyone sell options and get rich?
If only it were that simple. It's true options are priced to lose and that most expire worthless. What is a wasting asset for the buyer is a wasting liability for the seller. However, it's still a liability and sometimes that liability can end up being a real loser. It's not just a matter of a win/loss ratio. The magnitude of the wins vs. losses must be considered. The most an option seller can make is the premium, but they can lose far more than that if the underlying moves against them. It's possible for a seller's loss to be multiples of the premium they received for selling an option. If an option seller is really unfortunate, they can experience a loss on a single trade that wipes out months of profits. There's no easy money to be made trading options.
The Greeks
Let's pretend that I know what options are. How do the Greeks apply to option sellers?
Delta
Delta has multiple meanings:
How much the option's price changes relative to a change in the underlying's price.
The option's equivalent of a position in the underlying (a directional bet).
The probability the option expires in-the-money.
Definition #2 is important to understand when making delta neutral bets (discussed later). These profit from a decrease in volatility along with collecting theta. It's possible to construct a trade where a movement in the underlying does not change the position's value (or by much). Definition #3 is an approximation. Many option sellers like to sell out-of-the-money options with a delta of 0.30, which means they have an approximately 30% chance of expiring ITM.
Gamma
Delta is not a constant. An option's delta changes as the underlying's price changes. Gamma measures how much delta changes relative to a change in the underlying's price. Option buyers have positive gamma, whereas sellers have negative gamma. Long (positive) gamma works in favor of the buyer. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and profits accelerate. As the underlying moves further out-of-the-money, gamma decreases delta and losses decelerate. Short (negative) gamma works against the seller. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and losses accelerate. As the underlying moves further OTM, gamma decreases delta and profits decelerate. Gamma is bad news for sellers. Theta gang has always been at war with gamma gang. Gamma is also the reason that delta hedging is so difficult when it comes to being delta neutral.
Theta
Beloved theta. The namesake of /thetagang. It's why we're here all here and why you're reading this. Theta represents the time value of an option. It's the extrinsic value of an option, and as each day ticks away the time value decreases a little. That amount is determined by theta. Theta decay is nonlinear and accelerates as expiration approaches. The goal of an option seller is to profit from collecting theta. One could sell an option that's ITM and profit from the underlying moving OTM, but that's not a theta bet, that's a directional bet. ITM options also have less time value than at-the-money options. ATM options have the most time value and so the most theta to collect, but are at a greater risk of expiring ITM compared to OTM options. The more days to expiration an option has the slower the theta decay. 30-45 DTE is a very popular period to sell. Others prefer weeklies.
Vega
Vega measures how much an option's price changes relative to a change in implied volatility. The IV of an option is the market's estimate of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. The higher the IV the greater the time value of an option, which means options with higher IVs are more expensive. Option buyers want to buy when volatility is low because options are cheaper. Sellers want to sell when volatility is high because options are more expensive. The best time to sell options is during the gut-wrenching periods when no one wants to sell because volatility is so high (such as the March 2020 crash). Options become extremely expensive and there are juicy premiums to collect. Look for large spikes in IV.
Vomma
Vomma (or volga) is a much lesser known Greek. It measures how much an option's vega changes as the implied volatility changes. Out-of-the-money options have the most vomma. This detail will be discussed later in a horror story of option selling gone wrong.
Rho
Rho measures how much an option's price changes as interest rate changes. No one cares about rho anymore thanks to interest rates being stuck at rock bottom for over a decade.
Volatility
What are some basic details about volatility that are important to know?
Both option buyers and sellers care about volatility (at least they should). Buyers want to purchase when IV is low and sellers want to sell when IV is high. An option's IV in isolation does not actually tell you if IV is high or low. It must be compared to the historical IV for that option. Two popular methods are IV rank and IV percentile. For example, if options on XYZ have an IV of 35% and options on ABC have an IV of 45%, on the surface ABC has higher IV. But if XYZ has an IV rank of 75% and ABC only 40%, XYZ's IV is actually higher relative to its historical IV and may be better suited for selling. There are different ways of measuring volatility and it's important to not mix them up:
Historical volatility: This is how volatile the underlying actually was. It doesn't tell you anything about the future volatility of the underlying. This is also called realized volatility.
Implied volatility: This is the market's prediction of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. It could be greater than, less than, or about the same as the historical volatility. It's only an estimate and can easily be wrong.
Historical implied volatility: This is simply the IV of an option over time. When you're looking at historical data and overlay HV with HIV, you can see how right or wrong the market was estimating future volatility.
Implied volatility rank: IV rank is calculated over a period of 52 weeks. The formula is 100 * (current IV - 52 week low IV) / (52 week high IV - 52 week low IV).
Implied volatility percentile: This tells you the percentage of time HIV has been lower than current IV. The formula is # of days with lower IV than today / # of trading days in a year (252 is normally used).
What is volatility skew?
To understand what volatility skew is we have to go back to the 1970s. You may have heard of a theoretical options pricing model called the Black-Scholes or Black-Scholes-Merton model. This model was published in 1973 and became very popular. It was widely adopted in the options market. The original Black-Scholes model predicts that the IV curve is flat among the various strike prices with the same expiration. It didn't matter if the strike price was OTM, ATM, or ITM, they all had the same IV. IV stayed this way until the stock market crash of 1987, where the DJIA dropped 22.6% in a single day. This single event changed the options market forever. The IV curve was no longer flat but instead demonstrated a volatility smile (conceptual graph). Strike prices further from ATM started trading at higher IVs. The crash was a gut punch to investors that taught them extreme moves in markets were more common than you would expect, and options started being priced accordingly. But the volatility smile is not symmetrical, it's actually skewed. OTM puts have a higher IV than OTM calls. This is due to markets falling much faster than they rise (they take the escalator up and the elevator down). This causes more demand for OTM puts to protect long portfolio positions. Most investors are long the market, and some will sell covered calls which increases the supply for OTM calls. Note that this is true for equity markets. Commodity markets behave differently. Normally there is a floor in commodity prices (although for commodities with storage or delivery constraints, as we learned in April 2020 they can dip below zero) and IV is higher for OTM calls compared to puts, because commodities can suddenly spike in price due to supply side shocks. In equity markets IV is inversely correlated with price, that is, IV rises when prices fall (reverse or negative skew). This isn't necessarily true for commodities where rising prices can mean an increase in IV (forward or positive skew).
The story of James "Rogue Wave" Cordier of OptionSellers.com: A tragic lesson in how not to sell options
James Cordier is a former money manager who has the dubious honor of not only losing all the money of his clients by selling options, but even leaving them with a debt because the losses were so staggering. James was a proponent of selling options and had even written a book about it. He had a now defunct website, OptionSellers.com, which targeted individuals with a high net worth. His strategy was simple: he was selling naked options on crude oil and natural gas. For years he made he made his clients plenty of money. Things were great. Until they weren't... and the results were catastrophic. His clients lost everything and even owed money to their broker, INTL FCStone. Where did James go so wrong? James was selling naked strangles on natural gas and crude oil. In November 2018, both markets moved against him, but the real losses came from his naked natgas calls. He sent an email with the subject line "Catastrophic Loss Event" to his clients on November 15th, dropping the bombshell that not only was all their money gone, but they may be facing a negative balance. If you look at a chart of natgas you can see why his accounts blew up. Natgas experienced a huge spike in November and his broker liquidated their positions at an absolutely massive loss. What mistakes did he make and what can we learn from them? 1. Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller Part of his strategy involved selling deep OTM naked calls on natgas (call leg of short strangles). Deep OTM options typically don't sell for very much, so in order to collect more money you sell a bunch of them to make it worth the trade. This is a terrible idea and no one should ever sell a bunch of deep OTM naked options. It can work great for years, until one day it blows up your account. In order to collect a decent premium you have to overleverage yourself. This is extremely risky and you will eventually experience a major loss one day. The odds are not in your favor. The underlying does not even need to cross the strike price for you to lose money. The underlying's price simply needs to move significantly closer to the strike price and you'll be deep in the red. This is made even worse if volatility spikes, which increases the option's price and your losses (discussed in detail in the next point). Notice what happened the following months: natgas prices crashed back to what they were before the spike. Had James not overleveraged his positions, he could've ridden the losses out to a profit. In fact, all those options probably would've expired worthless. There is another reason not to sell deep OTM naked options. Imagine you're a speculator with a small account (e.g., /wallstreetbets). They want to trade but they can't afford to buy ATM or slightly OTM options, so what do they do? Buy deep OTM options, bidding the price up. When a market moves big and the small-time speculators want to trade it, all they can afford are the cheap options, which are deep OTM. This is bad news when you're short them. 2. Not understanding the relationship between price and volatility Remember how for commodities volatility can be positively correlated with price? Natgas is one of them, and when the price spiked so did volatility. James did not understand the consequences of this. When you are short options, you have negative vega. As the price spiked so did volatility, and the short vega position piled up his losses in addition to being short delta. But vega is not a constant. We finally get to discuss vomma now. Vomma measures how much an option's vega changes as IV changes. In other words, as IV increases, so does vega thanks to vomma. When you're short vega and vomma, this is bad news. Remember which options have the highest vomma? That's right, OTM. So as IV increased, not only did his losses increase due to rising IV, but vega itself started increasing thanks to vomma, further accelerating his losses. He got wrecked four different ways: being on the wrong side of delta, gamma adding to delta, being on the wrong side of vega, and vomma adding to vega. 3. A total absence of risk management Risk management is essential when it comes to trading, and selling options is no exception. Selling naked options can expose you to extreme risks, and to ignore it is simply reckless. It's more important to avoid a huge loss than to make a huge profit, because all it takes is one big loss on a trade to make recovering from it impossible, ending your career in theta gang. Tail risk is a very real concern in trading, and those "rare" events actually happen more frequently than traders expect (fat tails). Look at a price chart of natgas over the past twenty years. You can see random spikes sprinkled throughout the chart. James never stopped to think, what would happen to the value of my positions if natgas were to suddenly spike in price, which I know has happened in the past, and will happen again someday? How could I protect myself against this scenario? It's pretty obvious that if a one-day or even few weeks move manages to blow up your account and completely undo years of profits, you have zero risk management in place. This stems from not understanding how the natgas market works, and trading it with no regard to risk. Selling naked calls on natgas is a terrible strategy because natgas can have sudden price spikes, and IV will spike with it. A much better strategy would've been selling a call backspread. You sell an ATM or OTM call, and you buy two or more calls that are further OTM. That way if natgas did spike your losses are limited, and you might even turn a profit on the spike. Spend the time necessary to learn about the underlying. And don't neglect risk management. If you're going to sell options, you absolutely must understand how the underlying behaves and its relationship with volatility, otherwise you cannot have proper risk controls in place.
Miscellaneous
What are some popular option selling strategies?
The most popular would be covered calls and cash secured puts. CCs involve selling OTM calls on a stock you own. The short call position is covered by owning the underlying, hence the name (opposite of naked). A single equity options contract is for 100 shares, so an investor sells one call for every 100 shares they own. If the stock price rises beyond the strike price, the seller keeps the premium, but the options will get exercised and the shares called away. They sell them at the strike price, missing out on the extra gains beyond the strike. The seller still makes money on the sale, just not as much as they would have if they sold them at market price. If the stock grinds sideways, the options expire worthless. And if the stock falls in price, the options will also expire worthless, but the seller will lose money on their long stock position. Chances are they will lose more money than the premium they collected from selling the CCs. A CSP is a naked put that's sold either ATM or OTM with enough money in the account to cover the stock purchase if the option gets exercised. If the stock grinds sideways or rises in price, the puts expire worthless. However, if the stock falls in price the options will get exercised, and the seller will be forced to buy the stock from the options buyer at the strike price, most likely suffering a loss greater than the premium they received. A CC has the same downside risk as a naked put. If the stock declines in either scenario the investor risks losing far more money than the premium received. If you are comfortable with the risk of selling CCs you should also be comfortable with the risk of selling CSPs. However, you can lose more money in the CSP scenario if you buy back the put before expiration if IV rises enough, vs. holding it to expiration. Selling a CSP always means selling a naked put. It is not a covered put because you have cash to buy the stock. Whether or not you have enough money in the account to buy the shares at the strike price is irrelevant. A CP means you are also short the underlying, hence it is covered. It's the same idea as a CC, except it has unlimited risk due to there being no theoretical limit the price the stock could increase to, whereas a long stock position can't go below zero (not a guarantee for certain commodities). Other common strategies are wheeling and volatility crush. The wheel is similar to selling a strangle but not quite the same. You sell CSPs on a stock you wouldn't be opposed to owning, and in the unfortunate case of being assigned, you then sell CCs to recoup your losses. If you've been selling CSPs for a while you may still be net up when assigned, but if the stock craters you're looking at a significant loss. You hope the stock slowly climbs while selling CCs, but if the stock suddenly spikes your shares may get called away and you miss out on recovering your losses on the upside. There are variations to the wheel before being assigned. A jade lizard is selling an OTM call spread where the max loss on it is less than the premium collected from selling the CSP. Ideally the stock will trade in between the short put and call strikes and all options expire worthless. You can also trade a ratio put spread instead of just a put. The volatility crush trade is a delta neutral strategy. It profits not from a change in the underlying's price, but from IV decreasing. It's very popular right before earnings. IV on a stock can spike just before an earnings report is released due to uncertainty (vol rush). Unless you have insider information, you can only guess what the results will be. After the report is released, IV crashes because the uncertainty is gone (vol crush). Everyone knows the results. You find a company who's about to report earnings and the IV on their options has spiked. You then sell expensive ATM calls, and because ATM options have a delta of about 0.5 you buy 50 shares for every call sold. Your net delta is zero (delta neutral) because you've offset the negative delta from the short call position by buying shares which gives you positive delta. By hedging your delta you've eliminated directional risk. After earnings are released, IV craters and you buy back the options at a cheaper price and sell your shares. In theory this sounds like an easy way to profit. In reality it's not due to our archnemesis gamma gang. Delta is not a constant and as the underlying's price changes so does delta. If the stock soars after earnings, the call option's delta will increase and your delta exposure will become increasingly negative as the stock rises in price. If the stock tanks, your delta exposure will become increasing positive as the stock falls in price. In either scenario you start losing money from your changing delta position, and the amount you make from IV decreasing must be greater, otherwise you lose money overall on the trade. You can try to nudge your delta in a direction to hedge against this. If you're bullish on the stock you can overweight your exposure and buy more shares so that you have a positive delta. If you're bearish you can underweight your exposure and buy fewer shares so that you have a negative delta. If you're correct, good news for you. But if you're wrong, you lose more money than if you were delta neutral. Then you have a plethora of spread trades, such as vertical, horizontal, diagonal, and ratio, some with creative names. There are far too many to cover in this guide in detail. All of them have at least two legs (each leg is a component of the options trade) to the trade where you are both long and short options.
How does assignment work?
There are two main types of option styles: European and American. European options can be exercised only on the expiration date. American options can be exercised at any time before (and of course on) the expiration date. When an option is exercised, the Options Clearing Corporation randomly selects a member firm that is short the option, and the firm uses an exchange-approved method to select a customer that is short the option. The OCC processes all assignments after market close, and because it processes closing buys before assignments, there is no possibility of assignment if you buy back your short position during the day's trading hours. An option buyer can exercise their option even if it makes no sense financially and they would lose money. It's their right to do so and you are obligated to fulfill it if assigned. Even if an option expires worthless it can still be exercised. The buyer may be speculating that major news gets released after hours (some options trade until 4:15 PM ET) and when the market opens again the underlying has moved favorably and their gamble paid off. To avoid risking this scenario simply close out the day of expiration. Only about 7% of options get exercised and the majority occur close to expiration. This is because options still have extrinsic value before they expire, and once exercised the buyer loses the extrinsic value. It makes more sense for them to sell it. Be aware that if you are assigned you may see a large negative balance or buying power in your account. This may be because the underlying stock trade has not settled yet. It normally takes T + 2 (trade date plus two business days) to settle. Settlement means an exchange of money and securities. Payment is made from the buyer's account to the seller's, and the seller's securities are transferred to the buyer's account. The other reason would be the value of the new stock position. If you have a small account and are now long or short hundreds or thousands of shares, the market value could far exceed the cash value of your account. You'll be forced to close out by your broker. Once either the trade settles or you close out the large negative balance disappears.
What are some scenarios I can expect assignment, especially early assignment?
If an option expires ITM you can expect it to be exercised. Unless instructed otherwise, the OCC will automatically exercise any option that expires at least $0.01 ITM. Deep ITM options about to expire are candidates for being exercised. They start behaving like the stock itself since there's zero real chance of them not expiring ITM. They have no extrinsic value and in fact may trade slightly below their intrinsic value (at a discount to parity, parity being the intrinsic value). This is because no one really has any incentive to trade the option anymore, especially when they could trade the stock instead, which has more liquidity. A market maker would agree to buy it at a discount and at the same time open a position on the stock and exercise the option, profiting from the discount arbitrage. For example, XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading at $4.95. A MM buys the call while simultaneously shorting 100 shares, exercises the option and collects the risk-free profit of $0.05: (50 - 45) - 4.95 = 0.05 Selling spreads is a very common theta gang strategy, so let's examine the case of early assignment and assignment after expiration. You sold a 50/55 vertical call spread for $1.40 on XYZ that's trading at $53. It expires in a few days but for whatever reason the buyer decided to exercise early and you were assigned. You're now short 100 shares at $50 while still long the 55 call. Because vertical spreads are risk defined trades, this isn't a big deal. You're still long the 55 call, so you have upside protection which will cap your losses at $360 (500-140) should the stock move past $55. You could take the risk of riding it out and hoping the stock falls or you can close out the trade, accept your losses and move on. The other scenario is assignment at expiration. This is actually the more dangerous case of the two. Imagine the same circumstances except it's expiration day (Friday). The stock closes at $53, the short call expires ITM, and the long call expires worthless. The short call is exercised and you're assigned. Because you no longer have upside protection anymore, this is not a defined risk trade but instead undefined. You're short the stock over the weekend and no one knows what the opening price will be Monday. If major news gets published Sunday the stock could soar. Or it could crater. This is not the kind of risk theta gang likes to take. You should always close out of your short options on the day of expiration if there's a real chance of them expiring ITM, especially when your long options will expire OTM. Otherwise at that point you're now delta gang. If both the short and long options are ITM at expiration, the most you can lose is the spread minus the premium received. You might as well close out to avoid the hassle of being assigned and exercising your long options. The specter of early assignment gets raised quite a bit around the time dividends are paid. The scenarios are different for calls and puts. You may have read that if the time value of an ITM call is less than the dividend, the call is at risk of being exercised early. This is not because the investor will make money from exercising. Let's illustrate with an example. To be paid a dividend you must own the stock before the ex-dividend date. Call owners do not receive dividends. If you buy the shares on or after the ex-date you won't be paid the dividend, so the call owner will exercise it the day before the ex-date. XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading for $5.25. It's paying a $1 dividend and the ex-date is tomorrow so the buyer exercises the call. They're now long XYZ at $45. The ex-date arrives, the dividend is paid, and the stock is discounted by the amount of the dividend, and is trading at $49. They sell and wind up losing $0.25. What happened? Simply add up the numbers: (49 - 45) + 1 - 5.25 = -0.25 Whenever you exercise an option you throw away the extrinsic value. It doesn't matter how large the dividend is, since the stock's price is discounted by it on the ex-date. This is a losing trade. The only way the trade could make money is if the stock isn't discounted by the full amount. Sometimes this happens (other news gets published) but this is nothing more than a gamble if attempted. It's not an arbitrage opportunity. In fact, as the ex-date approaches you may see ITM call options trading at parity. This occurs because the stock's price will be discounted by the dividend, and so the option's intrinsic value will decrease as well. Buyers don't want to be left holding it going into the ex-date because they're going to lose money, so the selling pressure drives down the option's price to parity. It may even trade at a discount, presenting the earlier discount arbitrage opportunity. If the corresponding put with the same strike price as the call is trading for a price less than the dividend minus interest, then the call would be exercised and you would be assigned early. The trader long the call would exercise their call and buy the put, since this has the effect of recreating the same trade, except they receive the dividend. It's actually puts that offer a dividend arbitrage opportunity if the time value is less than the dividend. Using the example from earlier, a 55 put is trading at $5.25. You buy 100 shares of the stock at $50. Ex-date arrives, the stock is discounted to $49. You exercise the put, selling the stock for $55, collect the $1 dividend and profit a risk-free $0.75. Add up the numbers again: (55 - 50) + 1 - 5.25 = 0.75 You may already be guessing what happens to ITM puts as the ex-date approaches. Their price increases due to buying pressure, since the option's intrinsic value is about to increase by the dividend's amount. Once the time value at least matches the dividend the arbitrage opportunity no longer exists. One other scenario where you may be assigned is when the underlying is trading close to the option's strike price on expiration day. You don't know if it will expire ITM or not. This is called pin risk. What should you do if you're short? Close out. It's not worth the risk if the underlying moves adversely after market close and the options are now ITM. Just close out.
Should I close out of a position after collecting most of the premium earlier than expected?
This is a good idea. A lot of people follow a rule where if they've collected at least 50-80% of the premium they close out of the trade and move on to the next. They especially follow the rule when it happens much sooner than expected. Collecting the last tiny bit of premium isn't worth what you're risking (a relatively large amount of money to make a small amount). You're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. What will happen one day is the underlying will make a dramatic adverse move, eliminating all of your profit and even putting you at a loss. You'll be cursing yourself for being greedy and not closing out earlier. A lot of brokers will even let you close out of a short options trade for no commission if you can buy it back for only five or ten cents.
My position moved against me. What can I do about it?
You have a few choices. 1. Close out Close the trade. Accept your losses and move on. How do you decide if it's a good idea to close? Ask yourself, if you didn't already have this position would you do it now? Would you open the position now given the current price and market circumstances? If not, close out. You're going to end up on the wrong side of trades sometimes. It happens to everyone. Sometimes closing out is the right idea. Other times it's not. You can't predict the future, so don't beat yourself up when you make the wrong decision. But always be mindful of risk management and keep your losses small. 2. Ride it out It's not unusual for option prices to spike only to collapse in price later on. If you haven't overleveraged yourself you have the funds available to ride out the trade. If the answer to the earlier question about opening the trade now is yes, it's reasonable to ride it out. You might even consider selling more contracts, but remember to never overleverage. Just make sure the HAPI (hope and pray index) isn't high, otherwise it's a sign you should close out. 3. Roll Rolling is a good idea when you think the trade in the short term is a bad idea, but long term will make money. You close out of your existing position and open a new one. This is ideally done simultaneously so you don't trade into the position one leg at a time, risking a poorer fill on price (slippage) or only getting only a partial execution and your positions are now wrong. Rolling up is rolling to a higher strike price. Rolling down is rolling to a lower strike price. And rolling out or forward is rolling to a later expiration date. Typically you roll out, and possibly up or down. Whatever you decide, the goal is to roll to a new position that you can sell for more than the loss on the old position. That way you can at least recover your losses, and if you're fortunate, still turn a profit.
I'm doing great! I'm winning on all my trades collecting that sweet, sweet, theta. I want to sell even MOAR!
Slow down there, speed racer. The second worst thing that happens to new traders is they have a series of winning trades (the worst being they lose all their money). They become overconfident, think they have it all figured out, and place a trade that's way too big for their account. They of course don't realize how clueless they are, discover to their horror the trade was completely wrong, and end up digging through the remains of their now smoldering account. You've made a bunch of winning trades. Great. Don't let it go to your head. Don't start scaling up massively simply because you've been winning lately. A better strategy is to risk a fixed percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your account on each trade. As you make more money the dollar value of each trade increases but the percentage stays the same. That way when a trade ends up being a loser, which will happen, the damage is minor and you can still recover. Theta gang is not a get-rich-quick scheme. If you're going to commit to this you're going to be doing it long-term, which means slowly making money.
I like to sell options on stock indexes like the S&P 500. Anything I should know?
SPY is extremely popular for trading options but there is a much better alternative: SPX. Why?
Contract size: Both SPY and SPX options are for 100 shares, but SPX trades the full price of the S&P, so ten SPY contracts equal the notional value of one SPX contract. This cuts down commission costs by a factor of ten.
Cash settlement: SPX is cash settled so your account is either credited or debited and you never have to deal with any shares of the underlying.
No risk of assignment: Because SPX is cash settled there's no possibility of assignment. You'll never have to worry about early assignment.
Favorable tax treatment: SPX options are 1256 contracts, which means they have different tax treatment. It does not matter how long you hold 1256 contracts for, whether less than a minute or over a year, all trades are taxed the same: 60% of gains are treated as long-term and 40% short-term. Theta gang trades are almost always short term (one year or less), so this is the biggest reason why you should trade SPX over SPY. You'll get to keep more of your profits.
Minis are available: If you want to trade SPX options but don't have enough money, fear not. XSP is 1/10th the size of SPX, so it's the same size as SPY but has all of the benefits of SPX. The only downside is it's not as liquid.
If you like to trade options on other indexes (or commodities), you should consider futures options. Both futures and futures options are 1256 contracts and receive favorable tax treatment. EDIT: Hit character limit, rest of post here
Out of the states that tax winnings, North Dakota does it to the smallest degree at 2.90%. The Roughrider State provides tribal casinos, charity casinos, and lotteries. Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has become a mini-Las Vegas with 12 casinos along with poker rooms and sportsbooks. It only charges a 3.07% tax rate on gambling wins. If you win big while gambling in Las Vegas or Reno, you do not get to keep every penny, alas. Gambling winnings are taxable, and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) wants its share of your casino... You can request a specific amount of withholding tax to be taken out of any jackpot you win. Some players like to do this to avoid a big tax payment in April when they file their income tax returns. The additional withholding may not be necessary if you keep a log book. The law allows you to deduct gambling losses up to the amount of your winnings. Oregon doesn’t worry about taxing wins worth less than $600. However, it does impose an 8% tax on winnings worth over $600. Vermont: Vermont features a unique tax structure that varies based on your winnings. You’ll pay a 6.72% rate on wins worth less than $5,000, and 6% on wins worth over $5,000. Wisconsin: When your winnings exceed a specified threshold and/or tax is withheld, the casino will give you an IRS Form W-2G showing the amount you won and the amount of tax withheld. Report (and take credit for the tax you paid) on your IRS Form 1040 tax return at the end of the year. Answer 1 of 53: During a recent trip to Vegas my husband had a win on a gaming machine, the winnings were subject to 30% tax. He was told by the casino manager that upon our return to the UK he would be able to claim the tax back, does any one know how to do this... Yes, you are required to pay your state or local taxes on your gambling winnings. In case you travel to another state, and snag some huge winning combo there, that other state would want to tax your winnings too. But don’t worry, you won't be taxed twice, as the state where you reside needs to give you a tax credit for the taxes you pay to that other state. if you have time and qualify get your # in advance of your trip. the amount of absolutely false info about taxes posted here is irresponsible. if you don't understand the section on this at ww.irs.gov (not uncommon, trust me!) make a phone call or send an e-mail. or wait until you win big and the casino does what they do 9they absolutley know!) and then contact the IRS to find out your next step. Here’s a question that we keep getting asked- it’s relevant to UK residents who win in Las Vegas. American citizens are taxed on their gambling winnings in their home country, UK citizens aren’t (in their’s). So, if you travel to Las Vegas, get lucky, and win big on the slots (say the Siberian Storm slot) or the blackjack tables, or you beat the ... Gambling winnings while in Vegas (aside from blackjack, baccarat, craps, roulette, or big-6 wheel) are taxable no matter where you're from. If you're a non-resident alien of the USA (i.e., a Canadian), then you need to file a 1040NR with the IRS (aka, U.S. Nonresident Alien Income Tax Return).
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