Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.		Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.		Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.		Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.		Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.		Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.		Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.		Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.		Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.		Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.		Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.		Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.		Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.		Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.		Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.		Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.		Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.		Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.		Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.		49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.		Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.		Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.		Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.		Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.		Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.		Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.		Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.		Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.		Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.		Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.		Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

[ Removed by reddit in response to a copyright notice. ]

I am going to expound at length here about what I believe should be the Bills' primary target to add tot this offense for the coming years:
For the offseason: how do we feel about trading up (~top 10) to land Kyle Pitts? Personally, I think THAT move, singularly, would take Josh Allen, and this franchise, to unbelievable heights for many years to come.
The league is shifting in a way in which having a "plus (+)" player at the tight end position is extremely valuable. And I'm surprised it hasn't happened sooner. A good tight end can be summed up as a pure mismatch player, no matter what you do with him. I'm thinking guys like Kelce, Kittles, Andrews, Waller, and a few others. Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski in their primes. Tony Gonzales and Shannon Sharpe in their days. BIG guys that can really catch the ball and run routes that have the athleticism - way too much speed for most/all linebackers to cover, and way too big for DB's to cover. Game changers in the blocking scheme because they are or nearly as big and strong as D linemen and LB's. Can pick up DB blitzes and also block down field for YAC... all in helping your overall pass-and-run blocking game if they can block. That position carries so much value, and I haven't been impressed by any of the guys we have rotating there for us. I think that ONE gamechanger at TE will plant Josh Allen firmly as a top QB for at least a decade.
And everyone is talking about Trevor Lawrence being the 'can't miss, generational' prospect in this draft. They have said this many times about lots of guys with this same level of hype and been wrong. that's the nature of the QB position and how so many psychological factors and system issues play a part. You really never know, and even Lawrence carries some real risk in aspects you can't really predict until he starts playing. The real generational prospect is Kyle Pitts...
Started following the guy last year and from the very moment he took the field your eyes just fixate on that guy. The dude is 6'6" and 250lb, but he still looks and plays like an elite WR when he's going out. Elite in all aspects - route-running, beating defenders, array of separation moves, and top end speed for the position. When I said he's like a WR out there... a guy that big and he can run 4.4, and they 'say' he can run in the 4.3's (ran the 100m in HS in 10.45s, but obviously he was about 40lb lighter then. Of course these numbers are probably juiced or unverified... but the point is: he is FAST. It is clear on film and by the mere fact that people would not be shocked in the slightest if those numbers hold when he is officially timed.
What he's added is muscle, so it's made him into a solid pass blocker. His athleticism and skills make him great in the running game and he can continue blocking down field with pace ahead of RB's.
But here's where I think we have to do everything possible to get this guy: "spectacular"/ explosive play / chunk catching ability. He will literally catch everything thrown in his direction, relatively within his extensive orbit. In 2 years, the ONLY targets that he did not catch were due to poor throws that weren't close, out of bounds, back of the end zone, etc. I have not seen a guy so easily beat double, and even triple coverage and come down with the ball every time like I have with this guy. You know that brutal hail Murray play that really depressed us for a while? I am willing to bet any amount of money that if you throw a Hail Mary in Pitts' direction 10 times, it's a touchdown at least 6-8 of those times. Moss-like instincts with timing and nose for the football, but over 6'6 with ~40+" leaping ability, massive hands, and... ZERO, i said zero, unforced drops in his 2 years in the SEC, the stiffest competition with, typically, the nation's top defenses that feed the NFL talent pool year after year.
I mentioned those names of great TE's earlier, and I genuinely believe that this guy could surpass all of them if he remains healthy. There is a goofy little futures bet that I placed a while ago with +550 odds at the time that – that I am loving right now – that he will be on the Madden cover by 2025. When we started 4-0 and it became clear our draft pick was going to be very late in the first round (maybe 27+... HOPEFULLY 32!!!) I was thinking he'd be available that late in the 1st round. He also sat out several games this year and I was hoping he'd continue to do so... but it didn't matter. In the games he DID play he was easily the best player on the field and a nightmare for all defenses. He even torched Alabama and thoroughly, consistently, and easily beat Patrick Surtain III, projected top 10 pick and considered the next great CB from this draft. It wasn't even a contest. He will be taken in the top 20 for sure, and some GM's with a need might even take him top 5. He's that good. Play him on the line, put him in the slot, motion him anywhere you want, use exotic schemes, or just simply use him as your prototype, topflight WR1... he'll be the highest tier in any of those roles as a premier receiving weapon. You literally take other teams' defensive playbooks throw half of it in the trash. Man coverage will not be played no matter WHO you have, and this is a guy that got the moniker as a 'zone beater' this past season when he’d get consecutive calls for him for multiple 10-18-yard gains down the field... but it's just the only way you can hope to guard against the singular explosive chunk plays.
He's a guaranteed TD in the red zone, and the best deep ball threat since Randy Moss... I NEVER feel high on prospects. Never have. On the contrary, I roll my eyes and because, if you make the effort you track back, the ‘experts’ completely miss the mark on ~2/3 or more of the first round, the rest either underperform based on expectations/hype, and a few live up to the draft pick. Not to mention the guys taken in later rounds that become superstars and go back, find, and have a good laugh at the past ‘scouting reports’ and ‘draft profiles’ later on. The Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's and everyone else get it wrong way more often than they get it right. [PS Kiper is taking so much credit for being high on Josh Allen from the start, but he doesn’t want to play that game of analyzing all his mock draft analysis for as long as he’s been doing it]. Congratulations, Mel… but you were MIA, mum on the subject for his first two shaky seasons. I’d prop him up if he was standing by it and standing by his take and say8ing Allen would eventually make that leap. You had nothing to do with his development by this Bills’ coaching team and management. He’d end up a Darnold if he landed with the Jets, and while I always stood by him because our coaches were, and they are trusted, I NEVER expected this kind of dramatic leap between each of his first 3 years. But you’ll take the credit when Beane, McDermott, Daboll, Frazier, all the positions’ coaches worked together in building a long-term, sustainable, and ingrained culture of success that Allen found himself in.
But even though these prospect scouts/analysts DO acknowledge that Pitts is surely lottery pick, I believe they are still grossly sleeping on what a 'generational' player he WILL be, barring health to the extent that I am confident he will be.
Add him to this Bills' passing attack and keep the rest of this receiving corps intact (Diggs and Brown out wide, Davis as a no. 3, Beasley in the slot, McKenzie as the ATH/gadget man, and Andre Roberts as return specialist intact for the foreseeable future) ... the passing attack could be not just the most lethal in the NFL, but a historic one. I don't know if you want to place a ton of focus on the running game, but Moss and Singletary are plenty good enough to do what the run game needs to do, and they have proven that many times over. And although I'd ideally want to avoid this - we saw just last week what a threat Allen himself poses when he (smartly, please) takes off.
The pairing of this player - Pitts - with Allen, in particular, is just so tantalizingly saucy. Allen has shown tremendous accuracy this year, but Pitts completely erases the consequences of the errant throw - he catches everything in his general air space. He is the PERFECT weapon for a QB with elite 'arm talent,' unaffected by velocity, distance, or height. Fast enough to chase down a deep overthrow, will win every red zone/end zone jump ball with size/leaping ability, and the hands, technique, and body control to make every spectacular catch.
I know this has become a massive gush-fest, but if you can believe it, I don't think I'm doing it enough justice with how I believe it can alter the course of our beloved Bills franchise for at least a decade. So I feel the NEED to start some sort of movement or campaign within Bills mafia so that the chatter spreads.
We need to move up from the 32nd pick that we're going to get this year, but exactly how far up is murky. Most of these mocks by various big-name experts and groups have him going in the 12-20 range, while a few have him in the top 10. (One has him going no. 3 overall to Miami in that pick they got from Houston, which would be the WORST thing to happen... on a division rival and arguably the biggest challenger for the next several years). The lowest I saw was him falling to 25, but that is not going to happen. There are several teams with a need and young promising quarterbacks that they'd love to pair with an elite TE for years - I'm thinking the Chargers/Herbert, Bengals/Burrow, the Texans are desperate to make up for their massive fuckup in trading DHop and he'd be lethal with Deshaun.
I understand that the front office and many fans prefer to think in terms of primary roster 'needs,' and want us to find a top notch CB2 opposite Tre, add another top-end, high leverage linebacker, or shore up the interior offensive line to invest in that weakness and further protect our pending long-term investment in Josh Allen for the long haul as well as help with the, at times, average run blocking between the tackles, and I would be completely on board if we went that way. I think we could even add an edge rusher to eventually take the mantle when Hughes retires opposite Addison and with Epenesa moving around/rotating. it does appear we need a more dynamic running back, as well, capable of just finding one hole and gone. Moss and Singletary (bless his heart on that final hilarious TD run last week but it'll be a LONG time before he breaks one like that again) are good enough for how we utilize the run, but they are definitely used situationally - to shorten distance on early downs, pick up critical few yards here and there, manage the clock, and keep the defense honest and not just play dime and nickel all game. But they are NOT home run threats, and it might be nice to have a guy that can do it out of the backfield and not have to rely on risky jet sweeps and gadget plays for McKenzie, Roberts, Brown, and co. We can find that in late rounds/undrafted pool.
I am just imploring that there will be plenty of ways to either make improvements with later picks, in free agency/other offseason moves, at least to hold us over for subsequent opportunities to do so. But [my humble yet unequivocally FIRM opinion] there isn't and won't be a better and/or more synergistic player to pair with Josh Allen to come around in the next ten years.
And that concludes my pitch.
Go Bills!

Original article from drinkfive.com
 
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…
 
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
 
Rookies to Start:
 
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.
 
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point because of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.
 
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.
 
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.
 
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.
 
Borderline Rookies:
 
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.
 
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
 
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.
 
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.
 
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.
 
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.
 
WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.
 
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.
 
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options.
 
Rookies to Sit:
 
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.
 
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.
 
RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
 
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.
 
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.
 
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.
 
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.
 
WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.
 
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.
 
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.
 
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.
 
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.
 
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.
 
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
 
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.
 
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5th-most points per game to the position and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.
 
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.
 
WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.
 
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland, but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.
 
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.
 
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
 
Check out Shawn this week on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, starting on Wednesday at 9pm

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY

1. A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
2. Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
3. The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
4. Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
5. User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
6. Reveal the list… right now.

So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	N/R	32

Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R

Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	70

Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	18

Written By: the_fuzzy_stoner robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
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Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the ^AFC South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. ^{and here are the real link.}

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/R	84	N/R	28	31	13

Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	100	74

Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
32	93	23	8	2	21	17

Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/R	N/R	N/R	N/R	60	24	100

Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	97

Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!

My title of my post is the statement I stuck too from the very moment this selloff started. I've stayed consistent with this belief the entire time, whether we go up or down. If you just wanted any more proof, take a look at the Twitter link, as an additional piece of evidence. It's the same case in the recent up moves (the futures are contributing to the majority of the recent up move).
https://mobile.twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1248368169091239937
Retail, institutional investors, pension funds, etc. - they don't trade overnight futures. However you know who does? Stat arb algos as well as option trading firms/hedge funds/prop trading firms/bank risk-mitigation algos. For example if a hedge fund was put into a dicey risk situation, they turn on these algos to offload risk overnight. If they can't sell credit risk, they have to do it elsewhere like in ES futures. If an option market maker is short gamma and realizes oh crap, this is gonna cause me to be super long tomorrow with this move in ES, I've gotta hedge and turn on my overnight algo to sell first so I get less long deltas overnight.
So when you guys want to ask "who in the world is even selling" as we sold off and now "who in the world is even buying" as we go up, it's the algos. You are right, not many actual people are buying these days. It's the algos, and when I say algos, I mean the risk/liquidity algos.
Do you want to know why the algos are buying now? It's simple. Jerome Powell said he's buying credit ETFs. If you are a market maker, you have to sell these ETFs to them. Now you have to find a beta hedge. What's the best way to find that beta hedge? Buy ES futures. This then causes SPY to open higher. Now, if your algo was fast enough, you could have front ran the FED by buying HYG and JNK (this is why their NAV is trading at a massive premium), but if you weren't, well you get desperate as you get picked off from being short credit, so now you have to buy ES, SPY, and anything else you can. You might have to then buy SPX/SPY puts with it since you then have to protect your now new ES/SPY longs (which you didn't actually want to buy but were "forced" to buy),, which is why VIX hasn't dropped that much relative to how much SPY has gone up. It's all an algorithmically driven market.
This is why the entire market, on BOTH the down move and the now up move, has decoupled from the economy. So no, you guys may think people are FOMOing in. That's not true. Most investors aren't FOMOing in right now. The algos have just gone out of control on both the down and up moves and it's all technical.
Correlation (with other assets like credit and bonds), positioning (short squeeze and forced liquidations), option gamma (short gamma makes moves bigger), and short term stat arb strategies dominate the market short term. Retail and even big firms like Blackrock or Berkshire do not. Fundamentals win out long term. It may be months for SPY, and it is years for individual companies. No short term movement is ever controlled for by actual people wanting to put on a position.
As I said a month ago when we were selling off, if Citadel and Renaissance Technologies wanted to hold up the entire market for a day, they easily could. They may not want to if it's not in their favor, but they easily could. Two firms. That's enough. That about sums up this market. (EDIT: this part may have been extremely confusing due to my bad wording, but if you read some of the posts below with like me, MasterCookSwag, and ArseneWankerer, I try to clear up my meaning)
Another interesting and true fact? If options trading was ELIMINATED, the market would NEVER have sold off to 220 and it would have never skyrocketed back to almost 280 now. You may ask it's the same fundamentals right? Yes it is, the fundamentals of the economy and virus are the same, but elimiate options, and actually the entire market changes.
Finally, to add one more thing, if this wasn't clear, there needs to be a catalyst for the first wave of selling and buying, but everything after that is purely technical. For example, the catalysts would have been the virus and the oil shock in the wave of selling. The catalyst would have been the Fed in the wave of buying. However, the catalyst in itself shouldn't have produced a very large move. For example, imagine we go from 290 -> 270 as an example. The catalyst, if only traded by itself, should have moved it from 290 -> 285. However, the algos, with all the technical details I described above, then moves it from 285 -> 270. This is what I call "forced selling" or "fake selling," and I've alluded to this in my other posts. There is also "fake buying" in the reverse. However, "fake selling" is usually more powerful because on average people leverage up to be more bullish than bearish in an average market environment. So yes, the initial catalyst is important, but it's not the reason for the majority of short term moves.
I worked in the industry so I know this. You can call it a dirty secret, but hopefully if you see some actual statistics (see the above link on Twitter), you'll understand too. Fundamentals eventually will win longer term, but you know that saying about how the market can stay irrational before you stay solvent, well that's literally true because the market is algo driven. And as we progress into a state of better technology and even more options volume (think about how many people just recently started trading options) and other assets, this will be more and more true. One of these days, which could be like in 20+ years, if some black swan catalyst happens in conjunction with all of these technical factors I mentioned, you literally can see a 20% triple circuit breaker day immediately and like 90%+ of that drop would be all technical.
I'll try to answer any questions to the best of my ability.
EDIT: So for the people who are pointing out I don't understand what a MM is, let's do a easier example with NFL betting lines. Vegas acts like a MM in this regard. When an NFL line closes, is it 50/50 on both sides of the line? Nope. Vegas is still subject to risk. That's why sometimes they win or lose a lot of money depending on the outcome of an event, even though they are a "MM" too. Yes, Vegas will adjust a line based on some order flow, but it has their OWN MODELS TOO to determine what is fair, so they will adjust accordingly to the toxicity of the order flow. They will not just completely change their line so much so simply based pure order flow to keep on capturing 50/50. If you really think an options MM for example goes home every night flat every Greek, you are kidding yourself.
The point I was making above is a firm such as Citadel does so much volume that they have a huge impact on the market, whereas if you take them out of the market for say a month, the entire market microstructure changes in options and equities. Notice in my original post, I clearly said that these firms may not actually want to do this in their favor, but I am using them as an example saying they do so much volume they can IF they wanted to (in options you are more likely to do so than equities). I was emphasizing this point to show you guys how algos play such a large role in the market. It's similar to Vegas when they act as a MM to betting lines. They control the betting line at the end of the day. They aren't always 50/50 on both sides with no risk. Of course, Citadel and SIG in options will adjust their vol curves based on some order flow, but at the end of the day, they control most of the options vol pricing, which indirectly also affects equities in a big way when we have massive short gamma moves.
Similarily, apply it to sports betting. Let's say we shut down Vegas for a month and let only DraftKings price all the betting lines. I bet you the lines would be different and the volume would be different. Would they be completely different (like a -3 to a +3 line)? No, it wouldn't be that extreme, but it would be different and volume would be different and reaction to order flow would be different. Just think about it like this and apply it to trading.
EDIT2: this was also my post like ~3 weeks ago when we were like ~230. Too bad investing deleted my context of my post (since it relates to a lot of what I said below), but you can still see my title and my comments, so you know what I was calling. Yea sure, you can say I got lucky, but I wasn't wrong.
https://www.reddit.com/investing/comments/fjtkzh/we_are_very_close_to_the_bottom/
Addressing the above link, it's the type of logic that I am using in my below posts to probabilistically call bottoms like this. I'm never 100% sure (it's impossible to even be like 70%+ sure imo), but if you put some of this together (like when does the forced selling for the risk/liquidty algos stop?), you can actually call bottoms a bit easier than just winging it 50/50. Notice that this also coincided with March options expirations, as I mention, options are a big part. It also conincided with Jay Powell saying he's going to "alleviate the risks" (this is the forced selling from algos risk) he sees in the repo and now credit market.
EDIT3: u/brokegambler posted this, if you want a real professional talking about it https://www.realvision.com/market-makers-and-coronavirus-the-mechanics-of-a-market-sell-off?utm_source=contributor&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=43900_HK_GH_CONT_W1_LINK
EDIT4: ok last edit but https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pinningthestrike.asp is just a quick example of one phenomenon that happens due to options and market makers. There's not going to be many articles you can find online on about what I'm talking about, but this pinning the strike phenomenon is a well-observed effect that's actually writen about of what market makers can do in terms of controlling price action due to their risk. Interestingly, what we have in our case the last month is the opposite of this in which rather than strikes getting pinned, strikes get blown through to cause the huge moves (since we've been in short gamma the last month). The article isn't super detailed, but can give you a general idea of one effect.
EDIT5: sorry I'll add one last edit...I do realize maybe my wording was not the greatest in my post, and after reading it again, it does sound a bit "forceful" at times, so I apologize for that. This was meant to be more informative, but please don't take it as I am trying to force any one opinion on anyone. Apologize for that!

Make sure you're sitting down, and check for yourself if you don't believe me, but we're already at the double-digit mark for gameweeks in the football season. That's right folks, it's already time for the Week 10 Official nfl Power Rankings! It's amazing how fast time flies; three months ago, training camps were wrapped as teams made their way through the August doldrums of pre-season football. Now look at us! Heck in three months time, not only will we have crowned a new champion, but Antonio Brown might have landed himself a paycheck! Between your prop bets on which prominent fast food chain will be the first to employ Mr. Big Collections, feast your eyes on the following list of teams. As always, these are collated from a representational slice of 32 hopeless gambling degenerates. 31/32 reporting.

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Patriots	+1	8-1	Big run from here on out after the bye, starting with the Eagles. The Patriots needed the R&R to get healthier and to make the adjustments needed in readying for the playoffs.
2.		Ravens	+2	7-2	Lamar Jackson put himself at or near the front of the MVP race as the Ravens offense continues to dominate. Harbaugh and Roman have schemed the NFL's best offense by balancing the league's leading rushing attack with a passing game that uses all three TEs to much aplomb. The defense has moved past their early struggles with the addition of Marcus Peters and the return of Jimmy Smith; it now consistently gets pressure with a blitz heavy scheme.
3.		49ers	-2	8-1	In an instant MNF classic, the Niners dropped their first game of the season. Without his two top receiving threats, Jimmy G looked uncomfortable in the pocket and had trouble throwing anywhere more than five yards downfield. Three turnovers turned into the only three touchdowns by the Seahawks. The defense looked impressive, but the short fields and poor execution by the offense wasted their effort. The team looks to regroup on Sunday in a home match up against the Cardinals.
4.		Seahawks	+1	8-2	Russell Wilson is now 13-3 in his career against Santa Clara "San Francisco" and 8-2 on Monday Night Football, there are no longer any undefeated teams left in the NFL, and John Schneider's trades look like genius moves. Jadeveon Clowney, Jacob Hollister, and Quandre Diggs all played huge roles in this win, and it looks like there's good news on Tyler Lockett's injury as well. Even Jason Myers redeemed himself. Phenomenal game that would have been heartbreaking to lose.
5.		Saints	-2	7-2	The Saints under Sean Payton have always relied on a strong OL platform to run their offensive scheme. The Falcons came in with a plan to disrupt that blocking and reaped the rewards with a decisive win.
6.		Packers	+1	8-2	The Packers got back into the groove with a home win over the Panthers. Turnovers and the fact that the Panthers defense couldn't find any solution for Aaron Jones were the main factors in this one. Aaron Jones splits time with Jamaal Williams, yet he was still exchanging the league lead for TDs with Christian McCaffrey throughout this game. Remember that name: Aaron Jones.
7.		Vikings	+1	7-3	Even in primetime against a team with a winning record, Kirk Cousins continues to put up MVP numbers, and even across from Ezekiel Elliot, there was no doubt who was the best running back on Sunday night.. Danielle Hunter ranks first in the NFL in pressures generated while Everson Griffen ranks third, and though the secondary still struggles in coverage, Eric Kendricks leads all linebackers in pass breakups..
8.		Chiefs	-2	6-4	A triumphant game from the Mahomes-to-Hill combination still left the Chiefs on the wrong end of the scoreline on Sunday. Unfortunately, though the Chiefs are stacked with talent in some parts of the roster, inconsistent play in the trenches threatens to implode this team's playoff hopes.
9.		Texans	--	6-3	Dolphins 16 - 12 Colts
10.		Cowboys	+1	5-4	Like an annual ritual of an ancient cannibalistic tribe, the calls for Jason Garrett’s head have begun - and rightfully so. The inexplicable playcalling, ultra-conservative approach, and complete lack of in-game adjustments are hard to argue with. With a roster of this caliber, it’s hard to find fault in any area greater than the coaching. Heading into a slew of primetime games, the entire nation may get to witness the final fall of Garrett.
11.		Eagles	+3	5-4	The Eagles had a bye week in advance of hosting New England next Sunday.
12.		Rams	-2	5-4	With the season in a shambles, fans can spin the blame-o-meter and be happy with whatever space it lands on. Between McVay, Goff, the O-line, front office trades, and even the refs (at times), there's no shortage of awfulness to go around. It's not like the future is much brighter as the Rams' next first round pick is in 2022. Let the 8-8 McVay era begin.
13.		Bills	-1	6-3	The Bills came into this week playing against the 30th ranked run defense in football. Offensive coordinator and certified genius Brian Daboll proceeded call a mere 13 runs while dialing up more than 40 passes. The highlight was when the offense fought back from 1st-and-25 just to huck a gimmicky, one-read deep ball into double coverage on 3rd-and-4 because Buffalo isn’t allowed to have nice things. As for the two missed field goals that would have given the Bills the win: one supposes that's the football gods' way of making up for the team's win in Tennessee. Buffalo's fate is still in their own hands, but there's a lot to clean up.
14.		Raiders	+2	5-4	Chargers fans call Rivers "Dad", and following his stellar performance (2 ints, 1 TD, and a 3rd int called back) they are calling Erik Harris "Grandpa". After a coming out game for Clellin Ferrell the Raiders are now sitting just half a game back in the AFC west. The last half of the season is going to be fun to watch.
15.		Steelers	+3	5-4	People will talk about Russell Wilson as the MVP because of the impact he has involving other players at the QB position, but isn't it noteworthy when a single defensive player can improve an entire defense himself without directly giving the ball to others? Whatever Minkah Fitzpatrick is, it's by far the biggest impact on the Steelers this year and the sole reason they have risen from mediocrity to respectability. Fans expect Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson to change the face of an entire game (and they do), but there are a handful of defensive players every generation who do it, and it's usually a solo effort like Junior Seau. They don't often make everyone else better as well. If the Steelers actually turn this around and do something, it's because Fitzpatrick keeps it going.
16.		Colts	-3	5-4	The wheels are off at this point. But even in the midst of this nightmare season, Colts fans can enjoy the incredible tracts of real estate we own in the minds of the small-team Texans supporters. Even their blurb up the thread only talks about us. Rent free!
17.		Panthers	-2	5-4	News that Cam Newton's season is done has split the Panthers fanbase into two halves. The ones who want to roll with Kyle Allen are directly opposed to those who want Cam back in the fold for 2020. It remains to be seen which way the Panthers' front office will go.
18.		Titans	+4	5-5	The Titans let Patrick Mahomes put up the most passing yards (446) by any QB in Nissan Stadium, but Tennessee was able to survive with a last-second FG block by Joshua Kalu. Derrick Henry continued his success against the Chiefs with 188 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Somehow, Andy Reid is now 1-8 against the Titans.
19.		Bears	+1	4-5	When two bad teams play each other, technically the game must end in a result that changes the record of said teams after 60 minutes of playtime. Those rules were followed on Sunday, and there's not much fans can take away from the game except that it was nice to see the Bears beat a team they should beat. The Lions tried to avenge their loss to backup Chase Daniel last year by playing their own backup, but instead, they just lost. Maybe it was part of a deep state plan to keep Trubisky as starter, as The Onion suggested last weekend!
20.		Chargers	-2	4-6	The major takeaway from this game should not be the supposed decline of Philip Rivers but rather the importance of offensive line play. The Chargers played much of the game with 3 backups on the OL and the unit as a whole played unacceptably bad, allowing a meager Raiders pass rush to tee off on Phil. In comparison, the Raiders' OL had a significantly better game against the Chargers pass rush. At 4-6 with an 0-2 divisional record, the Chargers have their work cut out for them, even if the Chiefs are only two games ahead. The Chargers must beat KC in Mexico City if they want to stay relevant in the postseason hunt.
21.		Lions	-4	3-5-1	Many, perhaps most, Lions fans are ready to boot Patricia and Quinn. Maybe they are right, and it's time. However, it would be hard to argue that the Lions haven't been one of the most injury-affected teams this year, and when fans also consider that all but one loss has been extremely close, it's not so cut and dry. If they can finish strong (unlikely without Matthew, but who knows), it could reestablish some optimism for the future.
22.		Jaguars	-1	4-5	Minshew Mania is over (for now). It's time to give Jason Mendoza what he wants. FOOOOLLLLEEEESSSSSS!
23.		Buccaneers	+2	3-6	Bruce Arians coached with toddler-like petulance, throwing a challenge flag on a DPI he knew he'd lose, followed by a challenge flag he didn't have resulting in another lost timeout. Despite his infantile behavior, the Bucs managed to pull out a narrow victory over the Cardinals, bringing their record to 3-6. Rookies Jamel Dean and Devin White made a number of splash plays and Shaq Barrett continued his DPOY worthy campaign. This team is better than the record shows, but if my mother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle.
24.		Browns	+2	3-6	Relying on your opponent to miss a field goal to win a game is not a viable long term strategy. The Browns won, but it wasn't for lack of effort.
25.		Cardinals	-2	3-6-1	A dropped wide-open touchdown pass, a special teams mistake causing a six-point swing, and an untimely interception were too much for the Cardinals to overcome as they dropped their 3rd straight game. Aside from those mistakes, the defensive play has been absolutely atrocious. Sure, they caused some turnovers, but while the offense has been improving, the defense has been going in the opposite direction with the 2nd-most points and yards given up in the NFL.
26.		Broncos	-2	3-6	Russell Wilson is dummy thicc.
27.		Falcons	+1	2-7	Defensive play calling duties were split between Raheem Morris and Jeff Ulbrich for the first time this season, and what a game it was. Three of Atlanta's six sacks came on third down, which could potentially be a brand new sentence. Vic Beasley hasn't looked this youngry in years, and Drew Brees hasn't EVER scored fewer than double digits in the Superdome. Quinn made a great decision by taking himself out of the equation, falling faster from grace than any other coach in recent memory. Chase Young may be sitting in Flowery Branches' shopping cart at the moment, but no player will ever be good enough to make Atlanta want to lose to New Orleans.
28.		Dolphins	+3	2-7	We're sorry to interrupt your previously scheduled documentary on armored military vehicles, but we've got news of a disturbance going on down in Miami. Pardon me sir, did you see what happened? Oh yes, they call it the streak. They claimed 'nother victory. They're just as proud as can be, of their abilities. They haven't yet peaked!
29.		Jets	+1	2-7	The Jets' front 7 turned in one of their most dominating performances in recent memory by making contact with Saquon Barkley behind the line of scrimmage on almost every rushing attempt. The defensive gameplan forced the Giants' victory to fall squarely on the shoulders of Daniel Jones. Thanks in large part to the President impeaching the ball from him, Jones came up short.
30.		Giants	-3	2-8	The Giants are now officially the #2 team in New Jersey, with Pat Shurmur having now added Adam Gase to his resume of coaches that out-coached him. John Mara is angry, but he might want to take a look in the mirror because he hired the front office team that got us into this position in the first place. Once a beacon of hope and, in all honesty, many fans' sole reason for watching Giants games, Saquon Barkley has not looked anything like his 2018 self this year. If he is truly healthy, as the Giants say he is, one has to wonder what is going on that keeps holding him back game in and game out.
31.		Redskins	-2	1-8	The Redskins named Dwayne Haskins their starting QB for the remainder of the season, and fans are finally going to see the rookie QB get a chance to play and grow. Meanwhile, the race for last place and the first overall draft pick is heating up.
32.		Bengals	--	0-9	If Mike Brown keeps getting rid of his scapegoats (Marvin Lewis, Andy Dalton), people are going to start to realize the real reason the Bengals are bad. He's an incompetent owner.

Week 5 Recap: Look at us, putting in another solid card, right on que. As I have said in previous years, weeks 1-4 are usually a little high variance, but weeks 5-14 are where the data collection yields it's fruits. Thursday was fantastic, we picked the underdog upset and went 4-0 on the night. Sunday was also a positive day. We were VERY close to some big boy daddy long shots. I feel confident that they will show a return eventually, they are just a long term play. Our teaser was 1 off, that tends to happen with teasers over 3/4 picks so nbd. Overall a good building week. Let's keep this train rolling!
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)
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SUNDAY GAMES
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Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.
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Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM
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Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.
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Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.
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Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.
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Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.
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Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now
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Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)
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Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.
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LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.
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NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.
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Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.
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***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*
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Singles (29-30, -2.56u)

• CHI +3 (2.4U to win 2u) \*\**
• Mike Davis 5.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1.22u)
• Mike Davis Anytime TD (1.6u to win 1u)
• Mike Davis 58 Rec Yards (1u to win 1.95u)
• CHI/CAR Total Field Goals Made 3.5 Over (4u to win 5u)
• DET Team Total 27.5 Over (2.3u to win 2u)
• HOU +4 (2.13u to win 2u)
• HOU ml (1u to win 1.75u)
• WAS +3 (2.4u to win 2u) **\*
• WAS ml (1.5u to win 1.88u) **\*
• WAS HT ml/FT ml (1u to win 2.2u)
• CLE +4 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
• CLE ml (1u to win 1.6u) **\*
• Kareem Hunt anytime TD (2.75u to win 2u)
• B. Roethlisberger & C. Wentz 1 or more Passing TDs Each (1u to win 1u)
• CIN + 7.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• TB ml (1u to win 1.15u) **\*
• NYJ ml (1u to win 3.2u) **\*
• NYJ +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
• DAL ml (1u to win 1.2u) **\*
• I have many more plays that are going out to my subscribers. Most of them are the props I found +EV. The targeted games are DET/JAX, ATL/MIN, CLE/PIT, AND AZ/DAL.

Parlays (2-11, -14.09u)

• CLE HT ml/FT ml, BAL ml, IND ml (2u to win 11.22u) **\*
• WAS 1h +1.5, BAL ml, DET ml, IND ml (2.5u to win 9.9u)
• DET ml, WAS ml, TBml (0u to win 57.57u) SugarHouse had a deposit promo this weekend. This is the FreeBet from that promo.
• HOU +7.5, CIN +8.5, CLE/PIT 44.5 OVER, NYJ +10.5 (5u to win 42.16u) 50% Odds Boost on this one
• BAL ml, DET ml (3.2u to win 3u)

Teasers (1-4, +23.85u)

• WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5 (4.5u to win 10u)
• WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5, NE -1, TB +8, DET +3.5, NE -1 (3u to win 21u)

BBDLS (0-27, -22.57u)

• We have another 7 of these rocking for a total of 6.42u wagered.

MY HISTORY (BONAFIDES)
Sorry if putting my user in the title is ego-centric, I just love draft stuff. Here's my history in terms of wants/predictions with the Dolphins.
2017 NFL Draft - Pick #22. I wanted Forrest Lamp. He has been INCREDIBLY injured only playing 9 games in 3 years with the Chargers. I hated the idea of taking Taco Charlton. He got taken in the 1st by Dallas, got cut, and signed to us (lol was our leading sacker this past year with 5). I also thought we may take Jarrad Davis out of Florida who went to Detroit. Lions fans are disappointed with him and think he's bust. We ended up taking DE Charles Harris. The conclusion? You don't know shit, I don't know shit, and the Dolphins FO back then didn't know shit. Should have taken TJ Watt I guess.
2018 NFL Draft - Pick #11. I really liked Lamar Jackson. This was my snippet on the QBs. Fact check it yourself.

The Quarterbacks: They are the hoopla and the focus of everyones attention this year. I would say 5 Top-Tier guys in Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. In terms of my favorite of those 5, I have to go with Mayfield and Jackson. I LOVED Watson last year because he was a winner in college and had the "it" factor and I see a lot of that in Baker. Think he has definite boom or bust potential. I also really like Lamar Jackson because of the pure athleticism and feel like Gase could really work with him if he likes him(though I haven't heard much buzz involving him) After that, very meh on Darnold and Rosen terrifies me not because he's smart but Jimmy Clausen vibes. I would HATE Josh Allen because my god does he look like an obvious bust ala Blaine Gabbert.

I stand by almost every single comment I made there. I'm meh on Darnold, don't think Rosen is good, and while Josh Allen made the playoffs with Buffalo I still don't think he's leading them very far. I LOOOOOOOOOVED Roquan Smith out of Georgia. On the Bears post when they drafted him I said he had Defensive Player of the Year potential. He had injury issues this past year with a torn pectoral and got into a car crash a few months ago. He's been solid, but not game-breaking like I'd thought he'd be. I also loved Minkah (like everybody else in that draft post) and would be elated if we took him. We did! and hah... that worked out didn't it fellas?
2019 NFL Draft - Pick #13. It wasn't happening just because we won one too many games but I loved Ed Oliver as a DT. He made the All-Rookie team with Buffalo. I also liked Jonah Williams the OT the Bengals took despite it being boring, he got hurt in practice and didn't play a single down his rookie year. I did hit on us taking Christian Wilkins as a realistic option - he was alright I'd say. He had that stupid ejection on like the 4th play of the game, but let's hope with some actual DEs in Shaq Lawson and Ogbah along with Godchaux he can be more of an impact player next year. I was down on every QB except for Kyler Murray as well.
CONCLUSION? I'm not great at this but I have fun doing it. Take a trip if you're bored and you can hear a wild man's ramblings due to COVID-19 baby!
QUARTERBACKS
Tua Obsessed - Tua Tagovailoa is the end all be all for me. I like him more than Burrow, I think he'll be a better QB at the next level than Burrow, and I've felt this way for well over a year when I said I thought Tua would be viewed as an Andrew Luck-level prospect by the time the draft comes around. He is not without his flaws - specifically durability. I think it'd be unrealistic to expect 16 games a year from him for 10+ seasons. But I'd rather have him relatively healthy (Think Carson Wentz) over Herbert/Love by a mile. That's how good I think he is, and I think that the Dolphins contingency against him really shouldn't ever question Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees if they're trepidatious over his injury history. It's just one throw but this absolute beauty late vs LSU... All I'm saying is a hobbled 60-70% Tua looked better than Trevor Lawrence did in the Championship Game. The absolute dream would be to get him with the #5 pick and not have to move up for him. I feel like our only real competition left at this point is the Chargers - I hope they stay put at #6, ride out Tyrod Taylor / fall in love with Herbert and I think we'll have one hell of a foundation moving forward.
Oh No, Tua's Gone... **** - So let's say Tua gets snatched by a team in front of us (Chargers, Raiders, Broncos... whoever really) and now we're left at the altar without a franchise QB. What's the next best alternative? Hard pass on Justin Herbert. I get that he has all the physical tools anybody could fall in love with - but I don't want to spend a Top 5 pick on an inconsistent gun-slinger just because everybody says he's the 3rd best QB prospect. I don't think he moves the needle as a QB. Maybe he'll be decent. But did we get rid of Tannehill to end up with another 5+ years of a Tannehill-middling QB? Don't think so. Jordan Love is a big-time project. Lots of raw stuff to like but from what I've read he has some awful habits he has to break before being ready at the next level. If we took him at #18 I wouldn't exactly love it since that's a high value pick you're using on a complete ? mark but I could see in the 2021 NFL Season us giving him some run. Still - prolly wouldn't be thrilled. After that, you're not really talking about 1st Rounders. Don't think Fromm will be very good. I like the idea of Hurts as a back-up, but in the 4th-5th Rounds and we already have Fitz/Rosen it doesn't really make sense. Eason's a JAG IMO. Shoutout to James Morgan from FIU for getting some draft buzz too.
TL;DR QBs - Give me Tua or give me death. If we draft Herbert, I will whine and bitch like I did when the Heat drafted Tyler Herro. Don't look up his draft post pls. I was in a bad place (still think Romeo Langford and Sekou will be good players tho). I'm not gonna pretend like I'm an idiot though, I called Josh Rosen not doing jack for us the second we traded for him.
RUNNING BACKS
J.K. Dobbins >>>>> D'Andre Swift - I can't fathom the love for Swift as the #1 RB. I think JK Dobbins is a great deal better, and I even like Jonathan Taylor more than Swift. In terms of how it pertains to the Dolphins, I know A LOT of people are down on drafting a RB at our #26 pick late in the 1st Round due to what just transpired with Todd Gurley and the history of 1st Round RBs getting paid big contracts and then not panning out... but JK Dobbins is a frigging baller. Has been since his Freshman year. It felt like vs Clemson he was good for 8+ yards every time they went to him. He does have more mileage on him than Swift but I love the idea of Dobbins being a great bailout option as a pass catching threat (since I don't understand how you could bet on our O-line being "good" given the last decade of performances). I'd love Dobbins 10x more at the start of the 2nd Round - but if we picked him at #26, I'd be quite happy.
Other RBs Later On - I really like Cam Akers. He failed to produce quite like Dalvin Cook but those FSU teams also took a down-turn in recent years. Also like Joshua Kelley out of UCLA. With the signing of Jordan Howard, I don't think we need to draft a mid-round RB. We've had some decent success with a 5th Rounder in Jay Ajayi, Drake as a 3rd Rounder has the Miami Miracle and was a nice change of pace back, and while Kalen Ballage was a gigantic disappointment last year as a 4th Rounder, he supposedly was doing well in camp and then none of that transitioned to gametime. I say roll with Howard, use Ballage here and there, and hope we have a preseason surprise standout (who remember the Orleans Darkwa games????)
TL;DR RBs - I think Dobbins is a lot better than Swift. Like as a late 1st, love as a 2nd. Akers is cool too. Not a huge need. Still expect us to draft at least one.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DVP / Preston / Hurns / Grant / Ford / Wilson, who tf else we need? - DeVante Parker emerged as the #1 WR in receiving yards in the AFC last year and blossomed with Fitzpatrick. He made Stephon Gilmore his son. He beasted on the Eagles in Mills/Darby. He became the AJ Green-like #1 WR we were waiting for when we took him in the 1st Round. Williams was a superstar in preseason, and while he had too many drops in the regular season he was our 2nd best WR by yards despite only playing in 8 games. His best game was in our 1st win vs the Jets. But even with his surprise emergence, I think we can 100% do with a high-end WR prospect. Think about it. Is 29-year old Allen Hurns a long-term commitment? Wilson flashed some 2018 ability but we can't seriously rely on him. Ford came on stronger as the season ended but his ceiling is limited if we're being honest. What I'm saying is, while this isn't an awful WR crew, a top WR wouldn't hurt and shouldn't be dismissed in favor of "DRAFT O-LINE MAN" just cuz it's O-lineman. We drafted Pouncey/Ju'Wuan/Tunsil and still had a bad O-line for the most part. It's not all about investing 1st Rounders.
Holy crap this WR class is stacked - Tua's boys in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are some of the top WRs. I think Jeudy is gonna be phenomenal, real hot take over here. If he's at pick #18 inexplicably, take his ass and don't look back. Same deal with CeeDee Lamb really - and I think he'd fit in better with our current WR crop given his RAC ability. I love Tee Higgins size but it's a duplicating skillset with DVP/Preston. Denzel Mims also tickles my fancy. If you want someone even later on in the draft, take a look at Quintez Cephus from Wisconsin. He has a wild history please be warned... accused of sexual assault, went through the whole ordeal, eventually found not guilty. We got Preston Williams undrafted due to his personality issues at Colorado. All I'm saying is in the 4th/5th Cephus could be a steal - all I hope for really is avoiding wasting assets trading up for a Leonte Carroo-tier WR.
TL;DR WRs - Jeudy/Lamb are must-haves if they're somehow there at pick #18 regardless of other needs. They won't be tho. We could absolutely use a higher end WR prospect to go with our crop of guys.
TIGHT ENDS
Let's GeSexy With It - Gesicki was our 2nd best pass catching option last year behind DVP. He made some incredible catches and showed vast improvement over his rookie season. Caught the game-winning touchdown Week #17 @ New England. Glad we're getting production out of a 2nd Rounder. So with him, Durham Smythe as another 4th Round asset that's a strictly blocking TE, I don't really see a strong need for a tight end. Our last few tight ends drafted haven't been great. We spent a 5th in 2014 on Arthur Lynch who did nothing for us. Dion Sims in the 4th in 2013 had that game-winning TD vs Atlanta and little else. I still have nightmares of spending a 3rd we got for Brandon Marshall on Michael Egnew. This is a weaker TE class without a stud like Hockenson last year. I don't think Randy Moss' son is gonna be very great at the next level. If I had to pick one, I like the other LSU TE - Stephen Sullivan, with a mid-round pick despite little production due to the fact LSU was just an over-whelmingly stacked team this past year.
TL;DR TEs - We don't need one. I could still see us taking one in the 4th - 6th rounds.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
I don't know if he's good, but he plays the position we need! - This happens too often when people talk about fixing the O-line. It's always been an issue on here. People say just draft 5 offensive linemen in the draft and that'll fix it. Sure, how far back do I have to take you to make you realize dumping draft assets on a position doesn't work? Hell, let's do it!

• 2010 NFL Draft: 3rd Round, Pick #73 - OG John Jerry (He's still playing in the NFL, been with Giants/Bengals)
• 2011 NFL Draft: 1st Round, Pick #15 - C Mike Pouncey (4x Pro Bowler, too bad it felt like he was hurt every other week)
• 2012 NFL Draft: 2nd Round, Pick #42 - LT Jonathan Martin (hahahahahaha.. hahah... aww... this makes me sad)
• 2013 NFL Draft: 3rd Round, Pick #77 - OG Dallas Thomas (Mans is out of the NFL and got cut by Gase after we fell to 1-4 2016)
• 2014 NFL Draft: 1st Round, Pick #19 - RT Ju'Wuan James (Got a MAMMOTH deal from Denver, 4-years/51M... played 3 games)
• 2014 NFL Draft: 3rd Round, Pick #67 - OG Billy Turner (Got cut w/ Thomas after Titans game, he's been great for Green Bay)
• 2015 NFL Draft: 4th Round, Pick #114 - OG Jamil Douglas (Cut, won SB w/ Patriots barely playing, started 5 games for TEN)
• 2016 NFL Draft: 1st Round, Pick #13 - LT Laremy Tunsil (The bong with a gas mask fiasco, we got 2 1sts + 1 2nd for him)
• 2019 NFL Draft: 3rd Round, Pick #78 - OG Michael Deiter (I cannot honestly say anything about him, don't have analysis)

That's the top 5 rounds worth of drafting of O-linemen for Miami in a DECADE. That's 3 1st rounders! Year after year we invested... and with what to show for it? All I'm saying is, be careful what you ask for. I'd love an Andrew Thomas at #18. Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Willis are literal goliaths. But... I'm not going to pretend like I know what the hell I'm watching/grading when it comes to O-linemen. If you go through the draft posts of those players, you'll see all of us get excited about our O-line FINALLY being fixed. The NFL doesn't work that way. You can't just dump resources into an area and win. There needs to be chemistry, proper development, etc... I'd like one in the 2nd Round at minimum to help Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, and Jesse Davis - but I can't give props for a pick until I see how we do in the regular season. That's all I know about offensive linemen.
TL;DR O-linemen - I can't pretend to know what's good. If we draft 3 O-linemen with some of our Top 70 picks, I still won't be thrilled and think we fixed it. Look how many of our top-tier linemen even dating back to Jake Long just constantly kept getting hurt. We did that for a decade and it didn't. I know this is a different regime but still... be cautious when it comes to celebrating guys nobody really watches when the game is going on.
THIS IS SO LONG IM NOT GONNA READ IT JUST GIVE IT TO ME HOT AND FAST
Players I'd Love To See Us Take 1st Round: Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Andrew Thomas, JK Dobbins, Jedrick Willis
Players I'd Hate To See Us Take 1st Round: Justin Herbert, D'Andre Swift, Henry Ruggs III, if we pass on Tua I'ma lose my shit
Sorry if this was a little heavy on 1st Rounders, but with the 3 we have I can't help but lean into them. Defense is next!